India modernizing strategic Ayni air base in Tajikistan, While Pakistan focuses on its eastern frontier to counter potential Indian aggression, something more dangerous is cooking in the backyard. Being just 650 kilometers from Islamabad and 560 kilometers away from Peshawar, the Indian Air Force Ayni air base or Gissar Military Aerodrome (GMO) in Tajikistan has been undergoing serious construction work for several years. The airbase was vacant for much of the time as Russia was not interested in allowing the Tajiki government to allow IAF to use the airbase.
The airbase is so strategic, that even the United States Air Force once asked the Tajik government to hand over the airbase to conduct counter-terrorism operations in Afghanistan at some point.
The airbase was crucial for India during its evacuation operations from Kabul to Tajikistan when the Afghan Taliban overthrew the western-backed government.
Both the Indian Air Force and the Tajik government have denied using the airbase for military purposes but given India’s increasing assertiveness under the Modi government, several media reports have revealed that the base is indeed being run by the IAF.
The base gives the Indian Air Force a strategic foothold in the Central Asian country and in case of war, God forbid, the airbase could come handy for the IAF given its proximity to key Pakistani cities.
Why is the Ayni airbase dangerous for Pakistan?
Unlike the eastern frontier, where most of Pakistan’s military focus is concentrated, the Ayni air base gives the IAF an ability to surprise and disperse the Pakistani assets during a war-like scenario. The satellite imagery shows that two types of fighter jets are currently stationed on the airbase i.e. MiG-23 and MiG-29. The Su-24MK has a combat range of 1,050 km which can easily target major Pakistani cities in no time. (The author is weak in recognizing fighter jets from satellites. Expert suggestions will be highly appreciated)
Drawing the radius from the Ayni airbase, the fighter jet can easily target Peshawar and Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJK), putting huge psychological pressure on the armed forces of Pakistan. On the other hand, the MiG-29 has a combat range of 850 kilometers. A fighter jet with this range can easily target Islamabad, Rawalpindi, AJK, Peshawar, and the entire country if the jets had to land in India.
Modernization efforts at Ayni airbase
First and foremost, this is not the first time it is happening but the context makes it worth monitoring. India spent $70 million to renovate the entire base between 2002-2010 but they didn’t deploy assets in the region. According to the Print, it was under Narendra Modi’s government that India started to use the airbase as a permanent facility. The modernization efforts increased after Pakistan’s Operation Swift Retort against India in 2019, as per the satellite imagery.
The latest image of the airbase using Google Earth dates back to March 24. So I turned to another satellite imagery that takes pictures on regular intervals with a drawback, the images are not as clear as Earth’s. I turned to Sentinel Hub and captured the below image.
This image (4) provides almost real time construction at the site. One can easily see the amount of work currently underway. The larger hangers were still in the process of construction in image 3, but image 4 being taken a few days back shows a completely different picture. The modernization doesn’t stop here. Let’s now focus on the left side of the airbase where three small hangers are being constructed (probably for helicopters).
But the image on the right, although being latest on Google Earth, is five months old. Using Sentinel Hub reveals some extra information. See the below image.
There is another interesting feature that I noticed on the south side of the Ayni airbase. An almost 2 kilometers of area has been razed to the ground. A little over hundred apartments were destroyed between the October of 2022 and April of 2023 for reasons unknown to the author. See the image below.
One can clearly see the entire colony of apartments have been destroyed. We can say for sure that the airbase is currently undergoing a modernization process on a much larger scale. The apartments are being renovated to accommodate more people, at least this is what the author believes.
What is India thinking?
Several huge setbacks took place in the last few years for India.
- One was the collapse of the western-backed government who was supported by each and every Indian government so as to exert pressure on Pakistan from the western border
- The second bitter reality India had to face was the emergence of the Taliban in afghanistan. India, who is facing the problem of militancy in India and expects a resurgence with huge potential due to the Taliban, is getting ready to strike deep into Afghanistan if it keeps on harboring terrorists.
- Pakistan’s response to the Balakot airstrikes codenamed “operation swift retort” surprised the IAF as Pakistan not only shot down two Indian fighter jets, it carried out retaliatory airstrikes deep inside India in response. For the IAF, the aim was to surprise Pakistan and check its ability to respond to cowardly night attacks.
Taking multiple factors into account, India is projecting power not just to encircle Pakistan but also to contribute to its future surgical strikes in Afghanistan against militants. For India, who is currently helping the Afghan guerilla terrorists of the National Resistance Front, dealing with new Afghan rulers is challenging.
The writer is an open source intelligence researcher and posts about defense and disinformation on LinkedIn. He can be reached on linkedIn here.
