By: Qamar Bashir
After Trump, Europe seemed like an abandoned child—lost without direction and stripped of the security it once enjoyed under U.S. protection. This perception stems from my ability to read and write French, which allows me to follow discussions among French journalists, thinkers, and analysts on LinkedIn. These discussions often center on how long-standing alliances, once thought unbreakable, have crumbled while new, unexpected partnerships are taking shape.
Observing the transformation of the U.S. under Trump, both domestically and internationally has been fascinating. It was widely believed that while a U.S. president wielded influence over other nations, they had little power to challenge the entrenched bureaucracy and military establishment that truly governed the country. Likewise, it was considered unthinkable that the U.S. and Europe could diverge so significantly on both domestic and international fronts.
Trump disproved both assumptions. In his second term, he successfully dismantled key elements of the civilian and military bureaucracy—institutions that had long exercised control over both the presidency and the nation’s political landscape. Once dominant, these institutions are now struggling to maintain relevance, no longer wielding the president as a mere pawn.
He also shattered the notion that U.S.-European relations were unshakable and that hostility toward China and Russia was as ingrained as the transatlantic partnership.
In his first month, Trump alarmed Europe with threats to take over Greenland and proposed cutting aid that was fueling the Ukraine-Russia war. He accused Europe of exploiting U.S. taxpayers to sustain NATO, while failing to make its fair contribution. Simultaneously, he engaged diplomatically with President Putin in Russia, pursued economic cooperation with China, and fostered a more conciliatory approach towards President Xi. His softer stance on Taiwan signaled a significant departure from previous U.S. policies.
Trump also blamed the Biden administration for igniting the Russia-Ukraine war, asserting that Europe’s push to bring Ukraine under NATO was illogical and provoked Russian military intervention. While Europe framed the war as a fight for its survival, Trump viewed it as unnecessary and avoidable. He condemned the loss of young soldiers and civilians on both sides as tragic and committed to ending the conflict through negotiations—bypassing Europe entirely by proposing Saudi Arabia as a mediator.
Trump is known for his unpredictability and maverick nature, often shifting from one conviction to its complete opposite. However, his current stance—consistently advocating against Europe while favoring China and Russia—signals a geopolitical shift unlike anything seen in the past two centuries.
He seems to have recognized that maintaining close ties with Europe, despite its wealth, has been costly for the U.S. He believes Europe has relied on American taxpayers while fueling unnecessary wars at America’s expense. He also sees Europe losing its edge in scientific discovery, declining in global market influence, lacking control over rare earth metals—now crucial for modern industries—and experiencing economic stagnation for decades.
In contrast, Trump views the future as belonging to China, Japan, Korea, India, Singapore, the Middle East, and other emerging economies that are steadily increasing their share in global trade, investment, and business.
As of 2024, U.S. trade patterns highlight a shift toward Asia and North America, with Mexico ($505B), China ($438B), and Canada ($412B) as its top exporters, while Germany ($160B) is the only European nation in the top ten, underscoring Europe’s diminishing role in U.S. imports.
On the export side, the U.S.’s largest trade partners are Canada ($349.4B), Mexico ($334.0B), China ($143.5B), Japan ($79.7B), and Germany ($75.6B), reinforcing North America’s strong economic ties with the U.S. Despite trade tensions, China remains a key trade partner.
Meanwhile, the largest holders of U.S. dollar reserves are China ($3.2T), Japan ($1.2T), Switzerland ($953B), India ($638B), and Russia ($621B), reflecting the dollar’s continued dominance in global finance, accounting for 59% of the world’s
These trends align with Trump’s push to reshape U.S.-Europe relations, criticizing Europe’s economic dependence while pivoting toward Asia and North America as the dominant trade and investment partners.
European analysts, journalists, and thinkers are deeply concerned about the United States’ strategic pivot away from Europe, instead forging closer ties with Russia and China. This shift marks a significant departure from traditional transatlantic alliances, prompting European leaders to push for increased defense spending and a more assertive foreign policy.
Germany’s newly elected chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has stressed the urgency of strengthening Europe’s security independence, acknowledging the changing geopolitical landscape.
Likewise, the European Union is actively enhancing its defense capabilities, recognizing the necessity of self-reliance as U.S. support becomes increasingly unpredictable.
European leaders, including UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, have taken diplomatic steps to ensure continued support for Ukraine, advocating for increased defense spending and even the potential deployment of peacekeeping troops.
These initiatives reflect a decisive shift toward European self-reliance in defense, highlighting the continent’s determination to address security challenges independently in an evolving geopolitical environment.
The honeymoon period between the USA and Europe is over. Under Trump, besides blaming Europe to exploit the USA, he blamed European nations for straying from core principles of media and religious freedom while undermining democratic values—the very foundation of the U.S.-Europe alliance. In contrast, Trump’s administration has embraced China as its preferred partner for trade, investment, business, and cultural ties while also aligning with Russia’s position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
China and Russia are relieved as Trump’s “America First” philosophy begins to take shape. This policy can now be fully understood: alliances, no matter how old or strong, no longer define U.S. strategy. Instead, America’s own interests take precedence. This shift signifies that the U.S. has detached itself from historical commitments and burdens, repositioning itself as a free agent on the global stage.
In this recalibrated geopolitical posture, the U.S. sees its strategic interests better served through alliances with China, Russia, and other emerging powers—rather than Europe.
By: Qamar Bashir
Press Secretary to the President (Rtd)
Former Press Minister at Embassy of Pakistan to France
Former MD, SRBC
Macomb, Detroit, Michigan
