By Altaf Kumail
The Saudi-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA), signed on September 17, 2025, marks a pivotal moment in the evolving geopolitics of the Middle East and South Asia. This pact, forged amid regional instability and shifting global alliances, underscores a deepening of the historic ties between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan while introducing new complexities to an already volatile region. It is a bold move that reflects both nations’ strategic imperatives but also raises questions about its long-term implications for regional stability, particularly concerning India and the broader Gulf dynamics.
The agreement’s timing is critical. The Middle East is reeling from Israel’s aggressive actions, including its war on Gaza, strikes on neighboring states, and the unprecedented attack on Doha. These events have eroded confidence in the U.S. as a reliable security guarantor for Gulf states, despite the presence of 40,000–50,000 American troops in the region. Saudi Arabia’s decision to formalize a mutual defense pact with Pakistan, the Muslim world’s only nuclear power, signals a pragmatic diversification of its security partnerships. For Pakistan, the deal strengthens its regional relevance at a time when its economy is fragile and its rivalry with India is escalating. The pact’s clause treating aggression against one as aggression against both is a powerful political statement, even if its operational details remain ambiguous.
However, this agreement is not without risks. For Saudi Arabia, aligning closely with Pakistan risks entangling it in South Asia’s nuclear-armed tensions, particularly with India, which has been cultivating stronger ties with Riyadh. The pact could complicate Saudi Arabia’s balancing act with Iran, a regional rival, and strain its cautious diplomacy with other neighbors. For Pakistan, the deal enhances its strategic leverage but may draw it into the Middle East’s complex rivalries, potentially at odds with its own interests, especially given its historically neutral stance in regional conflicts like the Saudi-Iran rivalry.
The suggestion of a “nuclear shield” for Saudi Arabia, while speculative, is a particularly sensitive issue. Although analysts like Sahar Khan clarify that the agreement does not explicitly extend nuclear assurances, the perception of such a possibility could alarm the U.S., India, and others, given Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities and Saudi Arabia’s interest in nuclear technology. This perception alone could trigger a new wave of alliance politics and arms races in both regions.
For India, the pact is a strategic setback. The May 2025 skirmish with Pakistan already heightened tensions, and this agreement strengthens Pakistan’s position by aligning it with a powerful Gulf ally. India’s response, as articulated by its foreign ministry, suggests a cautious but vigilant approach, likely intensifying its own regional and global diplomatic efforts to counterbalance this development.
The writer is freelance Writer, Lecturer and Political Analyst
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