Turkmenistan, despite American investment in some areas such as the Caspian Sea, still lacks updated energy statistics, with institutions like the Eurasian Development Bank no longer publishing data since 2018: Dr. Illeritsky
DNA
Islamabad: The Institute of Regional Studies (IRS), Islamabad, through its Central Asia Program for Regional Connectivity and Cooperation, organized a thought-provoking session as part of its Eminent Speaker Series titled “Turkmenistan’s Perspective on Regional Energy Corridors: TAPI and Beyond”. The lecture was given by Dr. Nikita Illeritsky, Leading Research Fellow at the International Center for Central Asia (ICCA), Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow.
Dr. Illeritsky emphasized that while Turkmenistan is energy-rich—with an estimated 24 trillion cubic meters of gas reserves—its current export infrastructure is outdated and underutilized.
Most of its gas is exported to China under arrangements that give Chinese corporations significant control over production. In this context, the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI)pipeline emerges as a central project, offering potential access to South Asian markets.
However, TAPI faces substantial obstacles, including limited capacity, high costs, and geopolitical complications, especially in Afghanistan, which remains the weakest link due to persistent instability and lack of infrastructure financing.
Dr. Illeritsky highlighted the broader context of regional energy dynamics, comparing three models of infrastructure development in Central Asia: the Russian model, which is based on legacy Soviet pipelines but is now outdated; the Chinese model, which is fast and efficient but entirely controlled by Chinese firms; and the Western model, which prioritizes selective, commercially viable infrastructure.
Energy trends across Central Asia further complicate the picture. Kazakhstan’s gas production is declining, Uzbekistan faces seasonal electricity shortages, and Kyrgyzstan is highly vulnerable to climate change—especially glacier melt, which threatens both hydro and fossil fuel projects. Turkmenistan, despite American investment in some areas such as the Caspian Sea, still lacks updated energy statistics, with institutions like the Eurasian Development Bank no longer publishing data since 2018. Additionally, various swap deals with Iran and Uzbekistan remain small in scale and lack transparency.
Dr. Illeritsky concluded that while macroeconomic indicators may suggest positive growth, they mask underlying structural issues tied to foreign investment, dependence on natural gas, and weak field development. For Turkmenistan, the pathway forward requires opening its economy to diversified investments, improving data transparency, and actively engaging regional partners. Projects like TAPI, though difficult, are essential to monetizing its vast gas reserves and integrating more deeply with South Asian markets.
He also stressed the role Pakistan can play in advancing the project, given its growing energy needs and infrastructure capabilities. However, challenges remain, especially with India’s reluctance to rely on Afghan transit routes and the broader lack of regional cohesion.
The session ended with a robust Q&A, with participants raising questions about geopolitical risks, pricing mechanisms, and the future of regional energy cooperation. The IRS reaffirmed its commitment to fostering informed dialogue on regional integration, economic cooperation, and energy security in Central Asia.
