By Qamar Bashir
Since Donald Trump assumed office in January 2025, U.S. policy toward China has been a study in contradictions. On some days, he hails China as a great country deserving normal relations with the United States. On others, he brandishes tariffs as weapons, imposing crushing duties on Chinese imports. This oscillation between praise and punishment betrays a failure to grasp the transformation of China. It is no longer the vulnerable power of a decade ago but an ascendant nation, propelled by consistent leadership, unity of purpose, and a relentless focus on rising as a global force.
China’s achievements are undeniable. Over the past decades, it has eliminated mass poverty, built unparalleled infrastructure, and secured dominance over industries that define the modern age. From artificial intelligence and quantum computing to aerospace, electric vehicles, and cyber security, China sits at the commanding heights of technology. Central to this dominance is its control over rare minerals—the essential inputs for semiconductors, batteries, aircraft, and advanced weaponry. While America was lulled into complacency, financing consumption with printed dollars, China quietly consolidated its grip on global mineral refining, leaving the United States exposed at the core of its supply chain.
Against this backdrop, Trump’s decision to impose a sweeping 100 percent tariff on Chinese goods by November 2025 has alarmed economists worldwide. Their verdict is nearly unanimous: tariffs will not cripple China but will instead damage the American economy. The burden falls squarely on U.S. consumers and industries, who must pay higher prices for imports and inputs. For companies such as Boeing, electric vehicle manufacturers, and defense contractors, which rely heavily on Chinese components, the effect will be immediate and severe. Instead of securing advantage, tariffs threaten to undercut sectors vital to U.S. national security and global competitiveness.
What makes this escalation more dangerous is China’s newfound willingness to retaliate. Traditionally cautious in the face of U.S. provocations, Beijing now responds with confidence. Its counter-tariffs on American soybeans struck at the heart of U.S. agriculture, redirecting purchases to Brazil, a BRICS partner eager to deepen trade ties. American farmers, once heavily dependent on Chinese markets, are left scrambling, while Brazil emerges as the winner. In this struggle, China adapts swiftly while the United States absorbs the blow.
The timing could not be worse. The U.S. government shutdown, now stretching into weeks, has already eroded public confidence and economic stability. Inflation is climbing, job growth is stalling, and uncertainty hangs over financial markets. Trump’s long-term vision of rebuilding domestic refining and mining capacity may carry merit, but the reality is sobering: constructing such infrastructure will take five to ten years. Until then, the United States remains tied to China. With Beijing redirecting exports to other markets at competitive rates, Washington risks isolation and decline in sectors where it once excelled.
The domestic repercussions extend beyond economics. Trump’s reliance on executive orders to deploy National Guard units across American cities has stirred resentment. Governors, civil society groups, and ordinary citizens increasingly resist federal overreach. What began as isolated protests now carries the seeds of civil disobedience. If these tensions deepen, the United States could face a crisis of internal legitimacy alongside its external challenges.
Internationally, relationships once grounded in cooperation have soured. Under Trump, ties with Mexico, Brazil, Canada, and Europe have deteriorated, shifting from cordiality to volatility. Diplomacy has been supplanted by threats, taunts, and public insults. America’s reputation as a partner of choice is waning, leaving it with fewer allies and diminishing influence. Soft power, once its greatest asset, has been eroded. What remains is the blunt projection of military might—a tool ill-suited for resolving economic and political disputes.
At the heart of the crisis lies the failure to pass a coherent federal budget. Without it, the machinery of government grinds to a halt. Public servants go unpaid, households lose income, consumer spending contracts, and economic growth falters. Inflation compounds the pain, creating a vicious cycle that ordinary Americans feel most acutely. Jobs vanish, prices rise, and confidence evaporates. The very people who form the backbone of the nation bear the brunt of political dysfunction.
It is this human cost that makes the current trajectory so alarming. Americans, resilient and innovative, do not deserve humiliation at home or antagonism abroad. They deserve leaders who strengthen alliances, foster diplomacy, and pursue prosperity through cooperation rather than confrontation. Instead, they are witnessing the erosion of goodwill with neighbors, partners, and global institutions, while being asked to shoulder the economic pain of tariffs and shutdowns.
The trade war with China is not an isolated clash. Its consequences ripple across the global economy. Supply chains are disrupted, investment flows redirected, and markets destabilized. For consumers worldwide, the fallout means higher prices and increased uncertainty. For businesses, it means recalibrating strategies and bearing new risks. A conflict between the world’s two largest economies cannot be contained—it reverberates in every corner of the globe.
The path forward demands wisdom, not bravado. Tariffs, coercion, and military posturing cannot secure a sustainable future. Only dialogue can. The United States and China, as the central pillars of the global economy, must find common ground. A balanced agreement that delivers tangible benefits to both peoples would not only stabilize relations but also reassure a world rattled by their rivalry. Cooperation would send a signal of stability, confidence, and hope—qualities the global economy sorely needs.
The stakes could not be higher. Confrontation risks undermining prosperity, fueling unrest, and deepening global fractures. Cooperation offers the chance to channel competition into progress, ensuring that innovation, trade, and development serve people everywhere. In the end, the choice is stark: a spiral of tariffs and tensions that punish the many, or a diplomatic breakthrough that uplifts all. For the sake of Americans, Chinese, and citizens across the world, one hopes that reason prevails before it is too late.
By Qamar Bashir
Press Secretary to the President (Rtd)
Former Press Minister, Embassy of Pakistan to France
Former Press Attaché to Malaysia
Former MD, SRBC | Macomb, Michigan, USA
