The future of Afghanistan under Taliban rule presents a complex picture of internal challenges, strained international relations, and cautious regional engagement. Since their return to power the Taliban have sought to project a new image of a more pragmatic and diplomatic entity, yet their governance remains marked by severe human rights abuses, particularly against women and girls.
One of the most pressing issues is the Taliban’s regressive policies on human rights. Despite initial promises of a more moderate approach, the regime has systematically rolled back freedoms, especially for women. Girls are banned from attending school beyond the sixth grade, women are prohibited from most forms of employment, and their freedom of movement is severely restricted. These policies, which some human rights organizations describe as “gender apartheid,” have not only caused immense suffering but have also crippled the country’s economy by excluding a significant portion of the workforce. The Taliban have also been accused of arbitrary arrests, torture, and enforced disappearances of activists and political opponents. The justice system has been replaced with a strict interpretation of Islamic law, leading to public floggings and executions, which have been widely condemned by the international community.
The Taliban’s foreign policy has been a delicate balancing act. They have had limited formal diplomatic contact with most countries, with only a few, like Russia, granting them official recognition. However, many of Afghanistan’s neighbors, including Pakistan, Iran, and China, have engaged with the Taliban out of necessity to address shared security and economic interests.
Pakistan’s relationship with the Taliban has been particularly complex. While Pakistan had historically maintained close ties with the group, the new regime has created fresh challenges. Border clashes, coupled with a surge in attacks by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operating from Afghan soil, have strained relations. Despite these tensions, there are ongoing diplomatic efforts to improve ties, as both sides recognize the need for stability in the region.
China, for its part, has a strong interest in a stable Afghanistan. It views the country as a crucial link for its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and is concerned about the potential for extremist groups to use Afghanistan as a base to threaten its western regions. China has engaged the Taliban on security and economic fronts, including discussions about extending the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan. Beijing’s engagement is a pragmatic move aimed at protecting its investments and ensuring regional security.
In their previous rule, the Taliban were isolated due to their unyielding and extremist policies, which ultimately led to their ouster. This time, it appears they have learned some lessons from the past. They are actively seeking to engage with the outside world, particularly with regional powers, to secure much-needed economic aid and political legitimacy. While this new approach has not yet translated into a fundamental shift in their internal policies, it suggests a recognition that they cannot survive in complete isolation.
The future of Afghanistan is uncertain, but it is clear that regional cooperation is paramount. The Taliban must demonstrate a willingness to address humanitarian and human rights concerns to gain international acceptance. The international community, in turn, faces the difficult decision of how to engage with a regime that violates basic human rights while also trying to prevent a complete collapse of the Afghan state.
