BAKU: An arrangement is in place that would allow Azerbaijan and Russia to move on from a bitter dispute over the accidental Russian shoot-down of an Azerbaijani civilian passenger jet.
Russia and Azerbaijan have been at odds since late December when the Azerbaijani plane bound for the city of Grozny in the Russian republic of Chechnya was accidentally hit by anti-aircraft flak and ultimately crash landed in Kazakhstan, killing 38 of the 67 people aboard. The refusal of Russian officials to take responsibility for the crash and apologize stoked a series of acrimonious verbal exchanges between officials in Baku and Moscow, threatening to cause a rupture in their strategic partnership.
In late February, however, the tone of the bilateral tiff shifted noticeably. It started with a post on the Telegram social media channel by Chechnya’s warlord, Ramzan Kadyrov, announcing that he will award medals for valor to the two plane crew members who survived the crash. He added that a memorial plaque to the crash victims will be installed in the Chechen capital. “Their actions have become an example of true service and humanity,” Kadyrov wrote, referring to the plane’s crew members.
Kadyrov’s comments apparently have soothed tempers in Baku and opened a pathway to reconciliation. In the days immediately after the crash, Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev reportedly refused to take a call from Kadyrov. Azerbaijani anger stemmed from the fact that Kadyrov had awarded a medal to his nephew for supposedly leading a stout air defense against a Ukrainian drone attack on Grozny shortly before the Azerbaijani airliner was hit by flak.
The official stance in Baku towards Chechnya immediately softened following Kadyrov’s good-will gesture.
“The decision by Chechen authorities to award certain individuals after the crash understandably sparked strong outrage in Azerbaijani society. However, investigations have confirmed—and Azerbaijan has precise information—that the Chechen leadership had no involvement or responsibility in the incident,” a government source was quoted as saying by the Trend news agency on February 27.
The source also told Trend that Russian military personnel were directly responsible for bringing the plane down. “In Azerbaijan, the voiced position on this matter is deemed acceptable, even if it comes late,” the source added, referring to Kadyrov.
Economic considerations are likely the reason for Baku’s softening stance. “Despite the tensions, both sides have too much to lose from a lasting fallout,” Maxim Trudolyubov, an expert at the Kennan Institute in Washington, stated in an analysis published by the institute’s website. “Russia relies on Azerbaijan for transport routes vital to its relations with Iran and the Persian Gulf, while Baku’s geopolitical pragmatism and shared strategic interests will likely push both countries toward reconciliation—though on terms that reflect Azerbaijan’s growing assertiveness.”
Baku’s apparent absolution of Chechen involvement makes it easier for Putin to find a way to satisfy Azerbaijani complaints. Chechnya is perhaps the only corner of Russia where Putin’s word is not law; Kadyrov controls a private army numbering in the tens of thousands and operates with a wide degree of latitude from Moscow. In short, Putin couldn’t easily pin the blame on Chechens and compel Kadyrov to come up with some scapegoats for punishment.
Now, Putin has a bit more leeway to act. If he so desires, he can identify a few unfortunate Russian recruits for punishment and all parties involved can move on. The question now is whether Putin will walk through the door that Azerbaijan has opened for him?
