Written By: Sandeep Yadav
Just because Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is able and popular and wins elections, the USA cannot handicap her by imposing sanctions in the name of democracy and pave the way for the Opposition to replace her. That is no democracy either
For those who consider foreign services to be the poshest job with nothing much to do but enjoy the finest wines with the finest gentlemen in the finest capital cities of the world, then think again.
Sometimes the political quagmire gets so entangled that it takes all the patience, acumen and intelligence for diplomats to fill the white spaces and discern what is not being said and why. Presently, India, the USA and Bangladesh are engaged in one such diplomatic tussle with China, and Pakistan is on the sidelines keeping a hawk eye on the situation.
Bangladesh goes to poll in January 2024. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is looking for a fourth consecutive tenure. The Opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP) have accused Hasina and her party Awami League of election malpractices and wants her to resign so that free and fair elections can be held. The USA comes in here.
It accuses the Bangladesh government of ‘democratic backsliding’ and threatens punitive action like visa sanctions against anyone indulging in unfair means during the elections. It has also announced strict action against the officials of Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), accused by the Opposition of helping Hasina’s Awami League to repeatedly win elections since 2009.
Now, Bangladesh under PM Hasina is India’s closest and truest partner in the neighbourhood dominated by not-so-friendly neighbours like China and Pakistan. The Khalida Zia-led BNP, which is contesting against Awami League in alliance with several Islamist fundamentalist parties, do not have the same feelings for India. In fact, they have often expressed their hatred for India and love for Pakistan. What should India do? Should it bail out Sheikh Hasina against the USA-imposed sanctions in its geopolitical interest? Or should it remain mute and lose its trusted partner in the region?
As per Germany-based news agency Deutsche Welle, a message has been recently conveyed to Washington that India is “not happy with the current role of the USA in the upcoming national elections in Bangladesh”. It further said that India believes that the weakened Sheikh Hasina government is neither good for the region including India but also not good for the USA.
Reacting to the reports of India’s message to the USA in support of PM Hasina, BNP leader Mirza Alamgir said it was “unfortunate and not good for the security of the region”. He further said that it was never expected from a democratic country like India to meddle in the internal affairs of Bangladesh.
Meanwhile, Obaidul Quader, Road Transport and Bridges minister in PM Hasina government said that India has always been a trusted friend of Bangladesh and played a crucial role even in the formation of the country in 1971.
“If BNP calls India’s message to the USA as interference, then what happened in 1971?” asked Quader reminding India’s role in the liberation of Bangladesh from Pakistan when it provided it with aid, arms, training and shelter to millions running from Pakistani atrocities.
But the matter is not as simple. The USA’s sudden interest in democracy in Bangladesh is governed by self-interest. It wants to checkmate China whose interest and footprints in South Asia are on the rise. Presently, China-Bangladesh trade is worth 25 billion dollars. In comparison, it is just about 10 billion dollars between USA-Bangladesh. Bangladesh is also massively dependent on China for its defence. The related arms imports from China account for up to 70 per cent of its needs. China has also signed 32 billion dollars worth of investment in Bangladesh and this alone will keep China’s relationship with the country unchanged even if BNP comes to power. India does not have this luxury.
Now, China has also come out in support of PM Hasina saying that it “firmly supports Bangladesh in safeguarding its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity” by pursuing a development path that suits its national realities. While China and the USA have a strained relationship, the pressure is on India to bail Bangladesh out of the USA-declared sanctions.
Ever since the USA declared its punitive measures against Bangladesh, the Opposition feels energised and they believe they have a real chance to secure victory. Just like the Opposition has united against the BJP in India, a joint front against the Awami League has come up in Bangladesh.
PM Hasina and Indian PM Narendra Modi have built a strong relationship based on trust and respect in the past nine years and it has served the two countries well with both making economic strides. Bangladesh has grown at the rate of 7 per cent in the last several years with growth in trade and businesses. Despite anti-Bangladesh jibes made quite frequently by the BJP leaders in the wake of Muslim migrants in Bengal and Assam, PM Hasina has shown great maturity by ignoring them as the internal political compulsion of the BJP and insulating the bilateral trade and commerce.
To lose such an able and understanding leader from our neighbourhood, thanks to the USA playing the boss, is not good for India. Without anyone interfering in its internal affairs, let all the players have free play in Bangladesh elections. Just because PM Hasina is able and popular and wins elections, you cannot handicap her and pave the way for the Opposition to replace her. That is no democracy either.
