The Renaissance of Central Asia: Towards Sustainable Development and Prosperity Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, President of the Republic of Kazakhstan
For centuries, the Central Asian region has acted as a single geopolitical and spiritual arena, endowed with significant natural resources, substantial human capacity, and an infinite cultural and historical heritage.
I. COMMON DEVELOPMENT GOALS
The symbiosis of nomadic and sedentary lifestyles has not only formed the economic system of the region but also shaped its unique political and legal culture and value system, characterized by a high degree of tolerance and resilience to change. Empires have risen and fallen in the vastness of Central Asia, political and economic models have evolved, yet the unique identity of the region has remained preserved. From time immemorial, our ancestors have interacted harmoniously with various civilizations.
Due to this, the region played a key role in the history of the Great Silk Road and greater Eurasia as a whole, while preserving its ethno-cultural and spiritual identity. In modern history, our countries have faced many trials and obstacles. Pessimistic forecasts that the Central Asian republics would join the group of so-called “failed states” have not been validated. The nations of the region have proven their worth and have taken their deserved place in the international community.
Thanks to the unity and wisdom of our peoples, we have strengthened territorial integrity, freedom, and independence. It would not be an exaggeration to say that today each country in the region has accumulated its own unique experience in state-building, developing a market economy, restoring cultural heritage, and forming a national identity. Public and state institutions have been enhanced. Developed infrastructure and industry have been created, thousands of kilometers of new railways and highways have been laid, and important social facilities have been built. The policy of openness and renewal has ensured the progressive growth of national economies and integration into global economic relations.
The systematic evolution of education, healthcare, and pension systems has led to a significant advance in the socio-economic status of the population. Interstate relations within the region have also undergone drastic changes. Constructive bilateral and multilateral relations have been established between the countries at all levels, and mutually beneficial cooperation has been expanding.
The progress in resolving ambiguous matters, which previously often led to contradictions and hindered the comprehensive development of regional cooperation, is of fundamental importance. Achievements in the search for mutually beneficial solutions in the water and energy sector deserve high praise. Favorable conditions are being created for the gradual advancement of issues related to the delimitation of state borders, improving the operation of border checkpoints, expanding transport links, launching new routes, and facilitating mutual travel for citizens.
The rapprochement processes aimed at uniting efforts to ensure the long-term security and prosperity of the region have become consistent and irreversible. Today, the relations between the five states have reached the level of in-depth strategic partnership and alliance, filled with concrete content in the political, trade, economic, cultural, and humanitarian spheres.
The Central Asian states have managed to develop a pragmatic strategy for foreign policy relations, creating a stabilizing balance of inter-country and inter-regional interests, allowing us to become full-fledged participants in global processes. By strengthening their status as peaceful states, Central Asians actively promote their ideas and projects in multilateral structures, founding successful and influential organizations such as the CIS, SCO, CICA, ECO, EAEU, OTS, and others.
All of this allows us to speak confidently about the “Central Asian Five” as a group of steadily developing and self-sufficient countries at the heart of the Eurasian continent. There is no doubt that the common historical past and centuries-old traditions of friendship and good neighborliness will continue to serve as an unshakable foundation for bringing our fraternal peoples closer together.
II. THE REGION’S ROLE IN A NEW PHASE OF DEVELOPMENT
Thanks to their geographical location, the states and peoples of Central Asia have contributed to mutual cultural enrichment and the establishment of inter-civilizational dialogue on the continent over the centuries. They have made a significant contribution to peace and mutual understanding. Today, Central Asia continues to successfully fulfill this noble and responsible mission.
Our states hold similar views on issues such as global sustainable development, ensuring universal security and stability, and supporting each other within regional and international structures. They co-author important resolutions of the United Nations General Assembly. The emergence of new dialogue platforms in the “CA plus” format also highlights the increasing political weight of Central Asia as a subject of international politics.
To date, there have been nine summits and high-level meetings in this format. Over the past two years, the first summits of “CA – Russia” (in Astana), “CA – China” (in Xi’an), “CA – USA” (in New York), “CA – Germany” (in Berlin), two meetings of the heads of Central Asian states and the European Union (in Astana and Cholpon-Ata), the first summit of “CA – SCO” (in Jeddah), as well as “CA – India” (in an online format), have been held. This year, the first summit of “CA – Japan” will take place in Astana.
It is worth noting that other countries and international organizations have shown interest in interaction in this format. Thus, an important step has been taken towards solidifying the region’s subjectivity on the world stage.
The development vector of Central Asia is a commitment to traditional values combined with a drive for modernization and advanced knowledge. This makes our region a self-sufficient and influential participant in the evolving international system. Today, we are focused on strengthening our role as the Eurasian epicenter of international geopolitical and geo-economic transformations.
The growing economic weight, openness to innovation, and intellectual potential create conditions for the transformation of the region into one of the drivers of the modern world order, especially considering that our states have all the resources and opportunities for this.
Of particular note is the consolidation of efforts through joint participation in regional projects with external partners for the comprehensive advancement of common positions in dialogue platforms.
I am convinced that the time has come to position Central Asia not only as a link between Asia and Europe, but also as a separate regional actor in international relations, capable of becoming a new center of global gravity.
III. A NEW FORMAT OF INTERACTION
It is clear that the coming decade will be decisive for our region, and it is up to us to determine how effectively we will take advantage of this historic opportunity.
In the context of global geopolitical turbulence, we have created a space of trust and indivisible security in the region, removed barriers to regional cooperation, and laid the foundation for elevating our multifaceted cooperation to a qualitatively higher level.
Kazakhstan has established allied relations with Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, and is systematically expanding its strategic partnership with Turkmenistan.
The intensification of contacts at virtually all levels also testifies to our peoples’ desire for closer ties. Mutual visits and meetings of heads of state have become regular, giving impetus to the deepening of inter-parliamentary, inter-governmental, and inter-agency relations.
Active political dialogue and goodwill have become key consolidating factors in the development of five-sided cooperation.
The countries of the region have formed a unique Central Asian format of cooperation based on such fundamental principles as mutual respect for independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, and the peaceful resolution of potential disagreements.
There have been five Consultative Meetings of the heads of Central Asian states: in Astana, Tashkent, Turkmenbashi, Cholpon-Ata, and Dushanbe. The outcomes of these meetings, without exaggeration, have deepened and expanded regional cooperation, bringing it to an unprecedented level and giving integration processes a progressive, systematic, and, most importantly, continuous character.
At the first meeting in Astana in 2018, the main directions for the interaction of the five regional countries were determined. Following this meeting, contacts in the area of regional security were intensified.
During the second meeting in Tashkent in 2019, Central Asian leaders proposed several far-reaching initiatives to promote regional cooperation. In particular, Kazakhstan initiated the signing of the Treaty of Friendship, Good Neighborliness, and Cooperation for the Development of Central Asia in the XXI Century and the holding of regular meetings of the secretaries of the regional security councils. An important outcome was undoubtedly the adoption of the Summit Regulation.
The agenda of the third summit in Turkmenbashi in 2021 was very rich. The heads of state initiated the convening of the Inter-Parliamentary and Youth Forums and the establishment of a Business Council. The adoption of the symbolism of the Consultative Meetings was a significant milestone.
The main political outcomes of the fourth meeting in Cholpon-Ata in 2022 were the initiation of the signing process of the five-sided Treaty of Friendship, Good Neighborliness, and Cooperation for the Development of Central Asia in the XXI Century, as well as the adoption of the “Green Agenda” Program for Central Asia and the Concept of Interaction within Multilateral Formats.
At the fifth anniversary meeting in Dushanbe in 2023, the first step was taken towards institutionalizing the format of the Consultative Meetings of the Heads of State of Central Asia. The leaders decided to establish a Council of National Coordinators for the Consultative Meetings of the Heads of State of Central Asia.
On the sidelines of the sixth Consultative Meeting in Astana, further developments will include meetings of heads of transport departments, the first meeting of energy ministers, and a meeting of ministers and officials on media and information issues for the states of the region.
Overall, regular high-level meetings have significantly boosted joint efforts in all areas. This progress is primarily driven by the adoption of road maps for regional cooperation, which outline measures to strengthen practical interaction. As a result, trade, economic, and business ties have significantly intensified in the region.
In a short period by historical standards, Central Asia has transformed into an area of mutually beneficial cooperation with dynamically developing trade, investment, transport, and communication potential. Over the past five years (2018–2023), the volume of mutual trade has almost doubled, from $5.7 billion to $11 billion. At the end of last year, domestic trade turnover increased by almost 25%. At the same time, Kazakhstan’s trade with Central Asian countries increased by 26.8%, reaching $8 billion.
Joint large projects not only bring tangible benefits to their participants but also change the entire configuration of the Central Asian economy. An important area of cooperation is the development of a network of trade, logistics, and industrial hubs in border areas, which can become new drivers of mutual trade and joint investment activities.
The implementation of the transport and logistics potential of our countries is acquiring strategic importance. This area is intended to become a new reference point for the rapid development of the region. Much attention is paid to the creation of joint ventures in the fields of industry, energy, agriculture, transport, and digitalization, which act as local growth points. An important step in this direction will be the approval this year of the Action Plan for the development of industrial cooperation among Central Asian states.
IV. COMMON VISION OF THE PROSPECTS FOR REGIONAL COOPERATION
The previous summit in Dushanbe once again confirmed that the processes of consolidating the efforts of all five states in the name of transforming our “common home” give a powerful impetus to the transformation of Central Asia into an economically developed and prosperous region. In this regard, the upcoming Astana meeting is intended to open a new chapter in the development of the states of the region for the next five-year period (2024–2028).
Today, in the context of deglobalization, intraregional interaction between the countries of Central Asia is acquiring great relevance both for its self-preservation as a special civilizational area and for stabilizing the region as an integral organism. The unifying principle should be the complementarity of the five states, stemming from the historical and cultural commonality of our countries and peoples.
In the words of the great Al-Farabi: “The whole earth will become virtuous if peoples help each other to achieve happiness.” At this new stage of development, we face a number of important goals and tasks, the solution of which will determine the fate of the region and its peoples.
FIRST. Maintaining peace and stability not only in Central Asia but also in neighboring regions is a key condition for long-term development and progress. One of the priority aspects of Kazakhstan’s foreign policy is the pursuit of balance. We always adhere to the principle of “Peace Above All.”
As a responsible member of the international community, Kazakhstan advocates strict adherence to the principles of international law, respect for sovereignty, and the inviolability of borders. I can confidently say that there are many countries that share Kazakhstan’s point of view. The positions of many countries complement each other and aim to create a fair and predictable world order. In our turbulent times, this is a reliable foundation on which to build a constructive vision of the future.
In light of the ongoing complexity of the military and political situation along the periphery of Central Asia, there is a clear need for collaboration in the realm of defense policy and security. It is particularly relevant to establish a regional security architecture, including the development of a catalogue of security risks for Central Asia and measures to prevent them.
The primary objectives for the states in the region are the formation of an indivisible security zone in Central Asia, the pursuit of comprehensive strategies for addressing pivotal concerns in the fight against traditional and emerging threats, the development of response and prevention measures, and active collaboration with the United Nations and other international and regional organizations in this domain.
SECOND. There is a need for further development of economic potential and deepening of cooperative ties. The overarching objective for our countries remains the establishment of a robust economic foundation to facilitate multilateral collaboration. The region is now a hub of opportunity for trade, investment, science, and innovation, thanks to the collective efforts of the countries in the region and their robust economic potential.
The total territory of our countries is 3,882,000 square kilometers, with a population of more than 80 million people and a combined gross domestic product of up to $450 billion. Approximately 20% of the world’s uranium reserves, 17.2% of oil, and 7% of natural gas are concentrated in the region. In terms of coal production and electricity generation, Central Asia ranks 10th and 19th in the world, respectively. The complementarity of our economies provides a robust foundation for resilience to external shocks and the diversification of trade and production cycles. The effective implementation of joint economic projects can contribute to this process.
A key objective is the advancement of technology in our economies. It is essential that we gradually reduce our reliance on resources. In this context, digitalization and the creative industry—which encompasses media, cinema, music, design, education, and information technology—have the potential to drive economic growth. The countries in the region have significant potential for collaboration on joint projects in this area.
The boom in the digital and creative industries will facilitate a gradual transition from a raw materials economy to intellectual production. I am convinced that Central Asian economic cooperation may well become, if not the main, at least one of the key sources of growth for our national economies.
THIRD.The region has the opportunity to become one of the most important transport-logistic and transit hubs on the planet. Central Asia is rapidly turning into a key link in global transportation communications. This is exemplified by the promising Chinese project “One Belt, One Road” and the international transport corridor “North-South,” in which all countries of the region are involved to varying degrees.
Today, our countries are also promoting other promising ideas for the formation of new transportation corridors. Kazakhstan, together with its partners, is actively developing the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (Middle Corridor), where the volume of transportation can be increased fivefold in the medium term. New opportunities are opening up with the development of Kazakhstan’s maritime infrastructure—the ports of Aktau and Kuryk—through which increasing volumes of cargo from China and Central Asian countries pass to the South Caucasus, Turkey, and further to Europe.
The transportation corridors being developed through Afghanistan will provide access to promising markets in South Asia and Indian Ocean ports. This development is in the interests of the entire region. By uniting and expanding cooperation in the field of transportation within Central Asia and with countries beyond its borders, we will be able to achieve many of our goals.
For the coming period, the key areas of cooperation between our countries in the transit and transport sphere should be the comprehensive improvement of transport connections (increasing the frequency of flights, launching new air and rail routes, modernizing border crossings, etc.); ensuring the advanced development of transport infrastructure with the introduction of innovative technologies; expanding transit opportunities; and effectively using the transit-logistics potential of the region.
FOURTH.We need to develop common approaches to ensuring water, energy, and food security. The problem of water scarcity, which has affected almost all countries in the region in recent years, negatively impacts the socio-economic situation of agrarians and leads to serious economic damage for the population.
In this context, I would like to emphasize the exceptional role of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS) as a unique regional platform for discussing and solving the most important water-energy, environmental, and socio-economic problems. As the acting Chairman of IFAS, Kazakhstan proposes to intensify cooperation within the framework of the Fund and to jointly start establishing the International Water and Energy Consortium. It is also important to envisage a food component, since the water issue is inextricably linked to food security in the region. Our country traditionally favors constructive and open dialogue to address these issues.
The energy projects of the century for the whole region could be the construction of Kambarata HPP-1 in Kyrgyzstan and Rogun HPP in Tajikistan. The construction of these facilities will have a multiplier effect for all parties.
Global food security is affected by the ongoing geopolitical crisis. To minimize the dependence of Central Asian countries on external factors, coordinated measures are necessary. To this end, Kazakhstan proposed developing a Strategic Plan for Food Security in Central Asia until 2030, which includes forming a unified information platform for analyzing and exchanging data among the five countries.
Transitioning to a green economy is an important tool in reducing the negative effects of global climate change. The region is committed to realizing its large natural renewable energy potential. For instance, Kazakhstan plans to increase the share of renewable energy sources to 15% by 2030 and aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The widespread use of renewable energy will not only benefit the environment by reducing greenhouse gas emissions but will also contribute to energy security and job creation. Further sharing of knowledge, resources, and best practices can strengthen cooperation in this area.
FIFTH. Central Asia’s most important and most valuable resource is its young intellectual generation. Central Asia is one of the youngest regions in the world, with an average age of only 28.7 years. The UN estimates that by 2040, the average age of the region’s residents will fall further to 28.3 years, well below the predictions for other regions: North America (41.5), Europe (46.8), and China (48). This is a unique competitive advantage that offers great opportunities for the economic and social development of all five countries. Young people can drive processes of renewal in the economic, technological, and cultural spheres. The younger generation holds the key to success in a globally competitive environment.
In this context, pressing tasks include deepening cooperation in science and education, strengthening youth ties, and creating joint platforms aimed at empowering and realizing the potential of the younger generation. In turn, Kazakhstan actively supports the development of inter-university cooperation, the opening of cross-university branches, and joint faculties. We highly appreciate the aspiration of young people from neighboring countries to receive higher education in Kazakhstan and, for our part, we are significantly increasing quotas for study at our universities. Today, about nine thousand students from Central Asia study in Kazakhstan’s universities.
In recent years, representative offices of several leading foreign universities have been opened in our country. The number of higher education institutions conducting scientific research is growing, and technology parks and engineering centers are being established.
This work is being done as part of our strategic goal to turn Kazakhstan into a regional educational hub. At present, we are confidently moving together towards building a unified Central Asian higher education space.
SIXTH.The formation of the civilizational identity of our countries based on the harmonization of cultural and humanitarian ties between brotherly peoples is becoming an important mission. In building a modern image of Central Asia, we are also creating a new perspective on the national and regional identity of our citizens. We are linked by a special Central Asian mentality, on the basis of which a distinctive culture and traditions have been formed. The pillars of Central Asian identity are respect for common historical roots, intercultural dialogue, and interfaith harmony.
Historical memory is the foundation of the national identity of our peoples. Justified pride in the achievements of our ancestors and rich culture serves as a powerful impetus for the successful development of nations in the present, as well as for their confident ascent in the future. We must therefore pay more attention to the colorful pages of our common past. I consider it a highly demanded task to write a general history of Central Asia based on Turkic, Persian, Arabic, Chinese, Russian, and Western European sources.
To enhance our global competitiveness, we must relentlessly pursue common goals while maintaining our unity. As the great Abay said, “The beginning of success is unity.” As geopolitical projects and ideologies are being promoted in the world, the region needs to protect its spiritual and cultural code, which incorporates the best traditions of hospitality, solidarity, mutual assistance, preservation of family values, and much more.
In conclusion, I would like to emphasize that regional cooperation is not only an objective reality but also a vital necessity. In the conditions of geopolitical uncertainty and degradation of the established model of the world order, this is, in fact, the only pragmatic approach. Our future depends on strengthening cohesion, mutual trust, and openness to the world. Only on the basis of these principles can we ensure the renaissance of Central Asia as a dynamic, innovative, and culturally rich region.
Strengthening the paradigm of regional unity will serve as the most optimal response to current and upcoming challenges, enabling us to develop consolidated approaches to curbing negative trends and forming the basis for effective measures to counter any external forces. To this end, at the suggestion of Kazakhstan, a Concept for the Development of Regional Cooperation “Central Asia-2040” was prepared, reflecting the guidelines for the further development of multifaceted five-sided cooperation.
For our part, we consistently adhere to the principle “Successful Central Asia – Successful Kazakhstan” and are ready to further develop integration processes to the extent that our strategic partners and allies in the region are ready.
