Dr. Muhammad Akram Zaheer
The return of Donald Trump to the political spotlight has reignited discussions about his foreign policy initiatives, particularly the Abraham Accords. These landmark agreements, aimed at normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab nations, represent one of the most significant shifts in Middle Eastern diplomacy in recent decades. Analyzing their potential trajectory under a second Trump administration or another U.S. leader provides insight into the broader geopolitical implications for the region.During his presidency, Donald Trump brokered the normalization of relations between Israel and four Arab nations: the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. The accords aimed to foster peace, economic collaboration and security partnerships in a region historically plagued by conflict and mistrust. Trump heralded these agreements as a cornerstone of his foreign policy success, arguing that they had the potential to transform the Middle East into a zone of stability and cooperation.Economically, the accords have facilitated significant trade and investment opportunities. For instance, Israel and the UAE have engaged in multi-billion-dollar deals across sectors such as technology, tourism and renewable energy. These economic ties have created incentives for other nations to consider normalization, presenting the Abraham Accords as a mutually beneficial framework for regional growth and development.On the strategic front, the accords also serve as a potential counterbalance to Iran’s growing influence in the region. By fostering alliances between Israel and Arab states, the accords provide a platform for coordinated security measures aimed at addressing shared concerns over Iran’s military activities and its nuclear ambitions.If Trump were to return to office, his characteristic approach to diplomacy, heavily reliant on economic incentives and transactional agreements, could breathe new life into the Abraham Accords. Potential candidates for future agreements include Saudi Arabia and Oman, both of which have shown cautious interest in engaging with Israel.Saudi Arabia, in particular, remains a critical player. Although it has not formally joined the accords, recent developments suggest a gradual thaw in its stance toward Israel. Factors such as shared security concerns regarding Iran and the economic opportunities stemming from normalization could encourage Riyadh to align itself with the Abraham Accords. However, domestic political sensitivities and the kingdom’s historical support for the Palestinian cause remain significant hurdles.The Biden administration has expressed support for the Abraham Accords but has not prioritized their expansion. Instead, its foreign policy has focused on strengthening traditional alliances in Europe and Asia, particularly in response to the rising influence of China and Russia. This relative deprioritization of the Middle East has raised questions about the U.S.’s long-term role as a mediator and guarantor of the accords.Under Biden, there has been an attempt to strike a balance between advancing the accords and addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, the lack of substantial progress on Palestinian statehood remains a critical point of contention. Critics argue that the Abraham Accords sideline the Palestinian issue, potentially undermining their long-term viability if tensions between Israel and Arab nations over this unresolved conflict escalate.The Middle East’s geopolitical landscape is undergoing significant transformations that could impact the future of the Abraham Accords. One of the most notable developments is the warming relations between Iran and key Arab states like Saudi Arabia, facilitated by Chinese mediation. This rapprochement could weaken the momentum of the Abraham Accords as Arab nations reassess their strategic priorities and alliances.Moreover, the U.S.’s gradual reduction of direct involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts has created a vacuum that other powers, such as China and Russia, are eager to fill. This shifting power dynamic could influence the willingness of Arab nations to deepen their ties with Israel through the Abraham Accords, particularly if they perceive alternative paths to regional stability and economic growth.Despite the political challenges, public opinion in several Arab countries appears to be slowly shifting in favor of normalization with Israel, particularly among younger populations. This generational change, driven by aspirations for economic prosperity and a departure from entrenched ideological divides, could sustain and expand the accords in the long term. However, governments must carefully navigate domestic opposition and the broader regional consensus on the Palestinian issue to ensure lasting support for normalization efforts.
The role of the United States as a guarantor and mediator will remain pivotal. Whether under Trump or another administration, sustained U.S. engagement is essential to maintaining the momentum of the accords and persuading additional nations to join.The neglect of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict poses a significant risk to the long-term success of the Abraham Accords. Without meaningful progress toward Palestinian statehood or improved conditions for Palestinians, the accords may face backlash from both Arab nations and their domestic populations.The evolving dynamics of Middle Eastern geopolitics, including Iran’s growing influence and the involvement of external powers like China and Russia, will shape the strategic calculations of Arab states regarding normalization with Israel.The economic benefits of the Abraham Accords, exemplified by increased trade and investment between Israel and participating Arab nations, could serve as a powerful incentive for other countries to join. Expanding these economic ties will be crucial for sustaining the accords’ momentum.
