ISLAMABAD, JUL 1 /DNA/ – “The 2025 crisis was a reminder that while full-scale war may be avoided due to nuclear deterrence, the threat of limited conflict persists under the stability-instability paradox,” Dr. Adil Sultan, an expert on nuclear studies, remarked. A high-level roundtable recently held at the Institute of Regional Studies featured prominent national security and strategic experts.
The experts discussed growing concerns over the recurring confrontational pattern between Pakistan and India. The dialogue emphasized the critical need for robust deterrence, regional diplomacy, and a calibrated response to emerging security threats.
Dr. Adil Sultan critically examined the notion of a ‘new normal’ in India-Pakistan conflict dynamics, arguing that acknowledging such a concept would only legitimize future unilateral actions by India. He credited Pakistan’s measured yet firm response in 2019 for preserving regional stability and reaffirmed that nuclear deterrence remains the cornerstone of peace.
Major General (Retd.) Samraiz Salik observed that confrontations between the two nuclear-armed neighbors tend to follow a pattern of recurrence every 5–10 years, fueled by India’s aggressive regional posture and ‘perceived’ strategic advantage. ‘Pakistan’s superior cyber capabilities and expanding diplomatic outreach have been a decisive factor in the recent Indo-Pakistan escalation’ noted Major General Samreez Salik. He warned that disruptions within Pakistan, particularly attempts to derail the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), often coincide with these escalations.
The President of IRS, Ambassador Jauhar Saleem noted that India’s adoption of a new offensive doctrine, combined with inspiration from US and Israeli pre-emptive strike models, signals a doctrinal shift. Ajit Doval’s “offensive capability” statements and India’s actions post-Pulwama indicate a deliberate effort to test thresholds and shape battlefield narratives.
Dr. Zia Ul Haque Shamsi highlighted the ideological transformation within India, characterizing the Modi administration’s policies as shifting the country from a secular republic to an extremist Hindu state. He cautioned that such transformations not only polarize India internally but also contribute to erratic and irresponsible behavior on the regional stage. “India’s belligerence, masked by its projected role as a counterweight to China, has gained it unchecked Western support—both diplomatically and militarily,” he stated.
Referring to past confrontations in 1999, 2005, 2008, 2016, and 2019, Dr. Shamsi pointed out that the current trajectory is dangerously similar, underlining that peace hinges on the success of either diplomacy or deterrence. When both fail, conflict becomes inevitable.
The roundtable concluded with a unanimous call for sustained bilateral dialogue between Pakistan and India. Drawing parallels with Cold War diplomacy, the participants stressed that continuous engagement is indispensable for de-escalation and long-term conflict resolution. However, experts highlighted pertinence of economic security for the country to counter any impending challenge.
