Dr Naveed Khaliq Ansaree
Pakistan Air Force-the pride of the nation etched a new textbook of the “Decisive Air Dominance,” and a notion of an invisible kill-chain for the Indian Air Force (IAF) on the night of 7th May 2025, and earning the fame as an “Undisputed King of the Skies.” The PAF not only redefined the aerial duel but marked a strategic watershed in the archives of Beyond Visual Range Air to Air Missile (BVRAAM) combat that mainly unfolded near the Line of Control in Kashmir involving 70 to 75 state-of-the-art combat aircraft of the IAF pitched against 40 to 42 of the PAF. The numbers heavily favoured and the initiative rested with the IAF as it had the freedom of choice regarding the timing, place, direction and weight of attack.
Pakistan Air Force in an unprecedented, spectacular and data-proven air combat of mettle and nerves downed three Rafales, one Su-30, one Mirage-2000, one Mig-29 and a multimillion-dollar drone “Heron” within a span of an hour all without losing any of its own. Such a splendid aerial victory over an aggressor many times larger is unrecorded and unheard of in purely Defensive Counter Air operations, to which the PAF had restrained itself on that fateful night. The loss of three 4.5 generation French Rafales to Chinese PL-15 BVRAAMs fired from J-10C has not only recorded the first-ever confirmed kill against a Rafale but also proven that Chinese weapon systems can perform even better when employed professionally. The Rafale which Indian Prime Minister Modi had inducted as a technological overmatch and a game-changer in the arsenal of the IAF, has instead added insult to IAF’s injury.
The failed Indian military intimidation that lasted four days, ended in a US-brokered uncomfortable ceasefire at India’s request, setting several new precedents. For the first time in aviation history, the aerial combat shattered the doctrine that “Air Dominance is money-deep.” Under the watchful eyes of its adversaries, the PAF successfully demonstrated how its low-cost combat platforms like J-10C and JF-17 Block III could outperform several of the West’s flagship Rafales and Russian Su-30s; by employing the superiority of PAF air doctrine, quality of training, real-time sensor-shooter fusion and skilful integration of electronic warfare. Overnight, PAF had buried the notion of financial superiority beneath the weight of its tactical geometry of brilliant game-plans and full-spectrum fusion of technology, along with PAF’s kinetic and non-kinetic capabilities into Multi Domain Operations as envisioned by the Chief of the Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu, a lynchpin that enabled the PAF to achieve a splendid aerial victory against the IAF.
Pakistan Air Force who had mastered the Chinese technology beyond expectations emerged as an undisputed victor of the South Asia skies, making French technology lose credibility, leaving Russian in awe, Israelis embarrassing, and shaming India in the comity of modern air forces. The myth regarding superiority of French, Russian and Israeli technology was shattered in the first few hours of the aerial battle on the fateful night. Chinese dragon smiled as its arsenal was battle-tested and advertised for free; sky-rocketing the stocks of Chinese aviation industry to new heights overnight.
The recent Indian aggression has introduced new dimensions while significantly lowering the thresholds for hot war by several notches in the security calculus of South Asia. India which had already set a precedent of employing its premier military instrument against non-military targets, has now escalated tensions by adding missiles and drones into its war strategy crossing the international border. Both sides may now feel free to utilise their entire military instrument and wherewithal in a crisis situation. Above all, by declaring any future terrorist attack as an “act of war” India has dangerously lowered the threshold of all-out war, blurring the distinction between a ceasefire and the pre-hostilities phase in a future war. Any terrorist incident in India, whether home grown, foreign-sponsored or a false-flag, could push both the countries to the brink of a hot war. While the severity of the threat has gone up few notches but the threshold of hot war with Pakistan has plunged even further, making a nuclear catastrophe loom large over South Asia and the neighbouring regions; is the world really listening?
Through a military volley of shock and awe, India expected Pakistan to end up in a national-mourning but it turned out otherwise. Battlefields don’t lie. Having already lost several of IAF’s flagship combat aircraft, the S-400 air defence system, Israeli drones, and control over the skies, India was unable to withstand the might, discipline, tactical brilliance and weight of the PAF precision strikes. Confronted with data-proven losses, imminent destruction and gripped by panic, urgency and fear of escalation into all out war with Pakistan, Indian leadership conceded and tacitly reached out to the global players for help through back-door diplomacy. India’s hurried acceptance of the US-brokered ceasefire appeared more of a tell-tail of a “guised-surrender;” making India lose its credibility as “Counter-weight to China and Net-Security-Provider.” The strategic blunder that India committed, and the aerial victory that the PAF had achieved not only shook the West by exposing the vulnerability of untouchable Rafales (a key pillar of EU’s air strategy) but also etched a decisive air dominance in the skies of South Asia.
The writer, Dr Air Commodore Naveed Khaliq Ansaree (Retd), is a Director at the Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS), Lahore. He can be reached at [email protected]
