By: Qamar Bashir
Macomb, Detroit, Michigan
President Trump’s most important and election-winning promises was to reduce inflation, a concern that has been hitting American households hard, especially blue-collar working families. He outlined a two-pronged approach to achieving this: first, by expanding domestic oil drilling to lower energy costs and, second, by generating revenue through tariffs on imports. According to Trump, tapping into America’s vast oil reserves would bring down fuel prices, which in turn would help control inflation and stabilize the economy. However, instead of prioritizing the necessary investment, technological infrastructure, and workforce needed to ramp up domestic oil production, he implemented his vision in reverse.
Rather than first developing oil wells, refining capacity, and supply chain mechanisms to ensure a steady, affordable domestic energy supply, Trump swiftly imposed tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, China and many other countries.
The tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese products cover several crucial imports essential to the U.S. economy. The tariffs on Mexican goods target vehicles valued at $115 billion, machinery worth $66 billion, and electrical machinery totaling $64 billion. Canadian imports hit by tariffs include mineral fuels (primarily crude oil) amounting to $120 billion, vehicles at $56 billion, and machinery valued at $45 billion. From China, the affected imports include electrical machinery worth $152 billion, machinery at $117 billion, and furniture and bedding totaling $35 billion. These imports play a critical role in manufacturing, energy, and consumer goods sectors across the U.S.
Meanwhile, counter-tariffs imposed by Mexico, Canada, and China impact $323.23 billion in U.S. exports to Mexico, $291 billion to Canada, and $148 billion to China. U.S. exports to Mexico include electrical and electronic equipment, machinery, nuclear reactors, mineral fuels and oils ($45.07 billion), vehicles ($28.36 billion), and plastics ($21.2 billion). Exports to Canada primarily consist of automobiles, energy products, machinery, and agricultural goods, while shipments to China are largely agriculture, semiconductors, and industrial machinery. These retaliatory tariffs threaten to reduce U.S. export competitiveness, further straining industries already impacted by rising costs.
The increased cost of all imports will exacerbate the production costs for domestic manufacturers and retailers. Concurrently, the retaliatory tariffs will make American goods less competitive abroad, reducing demand and hurting industries like agriculture, automotive, and manufacturing.
Consequently, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), will rise pushing up the prices of fruits, vegetables, dairy, and meat, directly affecting household budgets. As inflation will rise, real wages will lose value, meaning that even if incomes remain the same, purchasing power will decrease, forcing American families to spend more on essential goods and services while cutting back on discretionary spending. This would create a ripple effect on the broader economy, reducing consumer demand and slowing business growth.
To counter inflation, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates triggering economic stagnation or even a recession. Higher interest rates will make business loans, mortgages, and personal credit more expensive, leading to reduced investments and spending leading to layoffs and reduced hiring across multiple sectors. Moreover, as borrowing costs will rise, homeownership and auto purchases could decline, further affecting real estate and consumer goods markets leading to prolonging economic distress, squeezing household budgets, and reducing overall economic growth.
Countries like Canada and Mexico are hurt not just by the imposition of tariffs but even more by what they perceive as a deep sense of betrayal by the United States. For decades, these nations have been reduced to near-vassal states, fully supporting U.S. policies and aligning themselves with American geopolitical adventures, even in conflicts where they had no direct role or stake.
Both Canada and Mexico stood by the U.S. in its wars and interventions, including the war against Russia, the invasions of Iraq and Libya, military actions in Yemen, Iran, and Afghanistan, and the broader War on Terror. They committed soldiers, resources, diplomatic backing, and moral support without questioning U.S. motives, often bearing the consequences of American foreign policy missteps.
Despite the risks and blowback, they remained steadfast allies, following Washington’s lead without hesitation. They were among the first to extend sincere aid during natural disasters, including the recent California wildfires, proving their loyalty and goodwill time and again. Yet, instead of appreciation, they now find themselves targeted by heavy tariffs, straining relations and leaving them feeling abandoned by the very country they stood by through thick and thin.
The unpredictability of President Trump is beginning to take its toll across the continent, creating a sense of uncertainty and unease. It seems as if the entire world has been caught in a whirlwind, with global powers struggling to anticipate his next move. Europe is growing increasingly nervous over Trump’s rhetoric about occupying Greenland and his potential withdrawal or reduction of U.S. commitments to NATO, which could jeopardize the security of the entire region.
In the Middle East, Trump’s controversial proposal to relocate the entire Palestinian population to Jordan and Egypt has ignited a geopolitical storm, further destabilizing an already volatile region. Meanwhile, his plans to assert U.S. control over the Panama Canal have sent shockwaves through Latin America, escalating tensions in an already turbulent political landscape. Additionally, his aggressive deportation of undocumented immigrants has triggered a human rights crisis, drawing widespread condemnation both domestically and internationally. Perhaps most alarming is his suggestion to annex Canada as the 51st state of the United States, a move that has sparked deep anxiety across the American continent and raised serious diplomatic concerns.
Historically, such expansionist ambitions have been associated with figures like Genghis Khan, the Crusaders, Nazi Germany, and the Soviet Union, where large-scale movements aimed to impose their will on the rest of the world. However, Trump’s success or failure will ultimately hinge on his domestic economic performance. If his adventurous foreign policies generate nationalistic support, they may boost his popularity among his base. However, if he fails to curb inflation and stabilize the U.S. economy in the short term, he may face an early downfall, with economic distress overshadowing his global ambitions.
By: Qamar Bashir
Press Secretary to the President (Rtd)
Former Press Minister at Embassy of Pakistan to France
Former MD, SRBC
