By Qamar Bashir
There was a time when the United States and Canada were so deeply intertwined that it was almost impossible to tell them apart. The world’s longest undefended border felt like an open gate between two homes. In 2018, during a visit from France to Canada, I stayed with my sister and later traveled with my family to Niagara Falls to see my brother-in-law in Michigan. At the border, our documents were checked briefly, but my brother-in-law’s American ID allowed him to pass without delay. It was a small yet telling example of the mutual trust and convenience that marked the relationship between the two neighbors. Canada’s warm hospitality toward U.S. visitors and the respect they received mirrored the dignity the United States offered to Canadian travelers. It reminded me of another crossing, years earlier, from Pakistan to China, where there was only one polite official on the Pakistani side helping tourists navigate the journey to one of the highest plateaus in the world. Sadly, the current U.S.–Canada border atmosphere now more closely resembles the tense and suspicious crossings between Pakistan and India, where travelers are stripped of ease and privacy, and once inside the country are shadowed by security services. This shift from warmth to wariness is both shocking and deeply regrettable.
Until recently, the two countries were bound by one of the strongest economic partnerships in the world. In 2024, total goods trade between them reached $761.8 billion, with U.S. exports to Canada worth $349.9 billion and imports from Canada at $411.9 billion. Agriculture alone accounted for $28.4 billion in U.S. exports, including nearly $800 million in dairy. Canada sent $124 billion worth of energy, machinery, and vehicles to the United States, while the USMCA trade agreement favored U.S. dairy producers by granting 3.6% tariff-free access to Canada’s $15 billion dairy market and removing restrictions that had long frustrated American farmers. This trade was not just numbers—it represented communities, livelihoods, and a shared prosperity that outsiders often described as two halves of one whole.
That reality began to unravel early in President Trump’s second term when he abruptly imposed tariffs on Canadian goods, starting at 10% and then climbing to 35%, with threats of even higher duties on dairy. In public speeches, he floated the idea of Canada becoming the “cherished 51st State” of the United States. The comments were not taken lightly in Ottawa. Prime Minister Mark Carney declared that “Canada is not for sale and will never be the 51st state.” Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau described the remarks as humiliating, while Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland called the U.S. actions “economic warfare.” Words quickly turned into confrontation, and soon a trade war was underway.
The most visible flashpoint came at the border when fully loaded trucks carrying U.S. dairy products—milk, cheese, butter, cream—began being turned back without explanation. Reports suggest that around 200 trailers were refused entry each day. Each truck carried goods worth tens of thousands of dollars, and with this volume, the losses to farmers, transporters, insurers, and distributors could easily reach tens of millions daily. Industry analysts estimate that U.S. dairy producers could lose up to $6 billion over the next four years as a result of tariffs, spoiled inventory, and the collapse of cross-border demand. Processing plants face shutdowns, insurers are exposed to claims on perishable goods, and the carefully balanced supply chain that once linked the two nations is now badly frayed.
The damage is not one-sided. Canada’s machinery, agricultural, and energy exports are also facing retaliatory barriers. Small towns and rural regions whose economies depend entirely on cross-border trade now face an uncertain future. In some places, the change feels less like a trade dispute and more like the hostility of neighbors locked in a feud, akin to the dynamic between India and Pakistan—where shared history and culture give way to mutual suspicion. Public sentiment has shifted sharply; Canadian road trips to the United States have dropped by nearly 37%, air travel by 26%, and the once-friendly banter between citizens on social media is now tinged with resentment and hostility.
What makes this all the more disturbing is the absence of reason or necessity for such a rupture. The U.S. agriculture sector, particularly dairy, is labor-intensive, export-dependent, and deeply rooted in the stability of Canadian demand. Without it, thousands of farmers face financial ruin, along with the transporters, warehouse operators, and retailers tied to their output. The Canadian side is suffering too, as businesses tied to U.S. customers lose access to their largest market. Millions of ordinary people in both countries are paying the price for a policy shift driven more by ego and rhetoric than by economic logic.
Sooner or later, the political consequences will be felt. As American farmers, truckers, and factory workers count their losses and measure the impact on their communities, the patience that some have shown for aggressive trade policies will erode. Once public opinion turns against a leader who is perceived to have harmed his own citizens, there is no political fight left to win. In all prudence, and without the need to massage egos, this policy should be reversed before the damage becomes irreversible. The relationship between the United States and Canada was never just an economic arrangement—it was a model of cooperation, trust, and mutual respect, admired worldwide. It is both tragic and pathetic to see it reduced to this level of hostility.
The path back is still possible, but it requires decisive steps now. Tariffs must be rolled back, inflammatory rhetoric abandoned, and cooperation under the USMCA framework restored. Both nations stand to gain far more from renewing their friendship than from prolonging this feud. By acting swiftly, they can repair the economic damage, restore public trust, and return to the days when crossing the border was a gesture of friendship rather than a symbol of division.
May wisdom muffle the clamor of pride, and may prudence guide the decisions that affect millions. May the leaders of the United States and Canada remember the years when they stood as the closest of allies and set an example for the world. Let this be the moment when two natural friends, turned by folly into unnatural foes, find their way back to partnership so that future generations inherit cooperation, not rivalry, and a shared prosperity that benefits all. Amen.
By Qamar Bashir
Press Secretary to the President (Rtd)
Former Press Minister, Embassy of Pakistan to France
Former MD, SRBC | Macomb, Michigan, USA
