Uzbekistan–United States trade: emerging upward dynamics

Uzbekistan’s trade relations with the United States have shown steady expansion over the past decade. In 2024, Uzbekistan exported $431 million worth of goods to the U.S. – a tenfold increase compared to 2014 ($42.4 million). The share of the U.S. in Uzbekistan’s total exports rose from 0.3% in 2014 to 1.6% in 2024, reflecting gradual diversification toward high-value markets.

Export structure

Uzbekistan’s exports to the United States remain highly concentrated in services (HS 99), which accounted for around $274 million (63.6%) of total exports in 2024. However, a noticeable shift has taken place in recent years. Exports of mineral fuels and oils (HS 27) surged from only $287 thousand in 2020 to over $117 million in 2024, elevating energy products to the second-largest export group. This trend highlights growing U.S. demand for refined energy products and by-products from Uzbekistan.

Beyond traditional sectors, several new export categories have emerged:

Aluminium and articles thereof (HS 76) rose to $11.4 million in 2024, compared to almost zero in 2020;

Aircraft and spacecraft parts (HS 88) expanded to $10.7 million;

Agricultural exports such as edible vegetables (HS 07) and coffee, tea, and spices (HS 09) jointly exceeded $3.5 million, reflecting early diversification into agro-based trade.

Overall, Uzbekistan’s exports to the United States are becoming broader in scope, gradually moving from raw materials toward industrial and agricultural goods, although the dominance of service exports persists.

2-digit HS Code	Product label	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
99	Services	25378	24144	31945	29843	19890	39774	108056	197042	273907
27	Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation; bituminous substances; mineral	477	242	112	949	287	2383	906	24076	117281
74	Copper and articles thereof	0	8	0	0	0	0	0	22217	677
28	Inorganic chemicals; organic or inorganic compounds of precious metals, of rare-earth metals	19362	0	0	15	35	5	57	12	122
88	Aircraft, spacecraft, and parts thereof	9	1	1	219	0	4209	605	0	10657
84	Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances; parts thereof	724	4313	910	811	367	1596	5136	367	552
07	Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers	459	840	935	1354	2065	1970	2253	1949	1894
09	Coffee, tea, maté and spices	868	909	985	1419	2343	2651	1289	1176	1661
76	Aluminium and articles thereof	0	18	0	169	123	126	496	349	11444
71	Natural or cultured pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, precious metals, metals clad	0	1	0	0	0	2618	688	44	5726
87	Vehicles other than railway or tramway rolling stock, and parts and accessories thereof	4348	21	0	16	0	38	36	1	1
61	Articles of apparel and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted	17	260	649	98	59	430	455	1122	886
08	Edible fruit and nuts; peel of citrus fruit or melons	73	227	418	204	150	459	437	739	942
85	Electrical machinery and equipment and parts thereof; sound recorders and reproducers, television	52	167	0	32	48	1065	128	815	425
39	Plastics and articles thereof	119	192	164	283	244	266	323	211	355

Table 1. Uzbekistan’s top 15 export products to the U.S., 2016–2024 (HS 2-digit level, thousand USD)

Source: National Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan

Import structure

In 2024, imports from the United States totaled $594 million, or 1.5% of Uzbekistan’s total imports. Although imports from the U.S. remain larger than exports, the gap is narrowing, reflecting Uzbekistan’s growing shipments of services, mineral fuels, aluminium, and aircraft components. The structure of imports reflects the technological depth of U.S. supply:

Machinery and mechanical appliances (HS 84) remain the largest category at $125 million;

Aircraft and parts (HS 88) reached $94 million;

Vehicles and transport equipment (HS 87) totaled $59 million, linked to logistics and infrastructure expansion;

Pharmaceuticals (HS 30) accounted for $20 million, maintaining steady demand;

Electrical machinery (HS 85) and precision instruments (HS 90) together exceeded $73 million, supporting modernization of industry and laboratories.

Other categories such as plastics (HS 39), rubber (HS 40), and man-made filaments (HS 54) also show steady inflows, expanding industrial linkages with U.S. suppliers.

2-digit HS Code	Product label	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
88	Aircraft, spacecraft, and parts thereof	216776	0	132884	271198	0	213	28	40429	93895
99	Services	20784	34161	63976	69166	36853	83086	95777	111929	155175
84	Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances; parts thereof	81224	32364	36977	67603	67058	66025	72734	103972	124890
30	Pharmaceutical products	38173	50718	68693	68348	20467	41681	106845	11681	20109
87	Vehicles other than railway or tramway rolling stock, and parts and accessories thereof	3546	5207	6586	20366	41977	105946	33857	147947	59356
85	Electrical machinery and equipment and parts thereof; sound recorders and reproducers, television	15506	14202	6220	7915	6863	15160	9260	13088	45821
90	Optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring, checking, precision, medical or surgical	12753	6727	4736	8045	9300	8805	10861	22550	27338
40	Rubber and articles thereof	2390	6426	31575	19816	2018	1802	1279	2668	3747
54	Man-made filaments; strip and the like of man-made textile materials	747	3732	6488	6365	4328	5856	5312	7153	6129
39	Plastics and articles thereof	717	9938	4401	2761	3684	4022	2879	5823	4421
38	Miscellaneous chemical products	1840	1322	1329	1031	20981	1458	2022	1810	4494
21	Miscellaneous edible preparations	407	376	397	532	2100	6253	6332	7206	6645
73	Articles of iron or steel	1111	765	1203	9107	3131	1389	2841	5142	5139
02	Meat and edible meat offal	772	597	797	750	3196	7421	5601	3835	4905
24	Tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes; products, whether or not containing nicotine,	2234	1466	1420	1498	1886	1615	1187	2898	3056

Table 2. Uzbekistan’s top 15 import products from the U.S., 2016–2024 (HS 2-digit level, thousand USD)

Source: National Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan

Trends and outlook

Overall bilateral trade turnover surpassed $1 billion in 2024, marking the highest level on record. Between 2021 and 2024, Uzbekistan’s exports to the U.S. grew on average by 98% per year, while imports rose by 26%, indicating an improving trade balance and a shift toward more diversified export patterns.

The United States remains a strategic trade and investment partner for Uzbekistan—providing not only high-value goods but also technological know-how and capital essential for industrial upgrading.

Future opportunities lie in expanding value-added manufacturing, digital services, and joint innovation projects, consistent with the “Uzbekistan–2030” Strategy.

In parallel with the steady growth of bilateral trade, Uzbekistan has also achieved a key institutional milestone in its integration into the global trading system. In December 2024, Uzbekistan and the United States Trade Representative (USTR) officially announced the completion of bilateral market access negotiations on goods and services within the framework of Uzbekistan’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO)^[1].

Impact of new U.S. tariff policy

In early 2025, the United States introduced a new trade policy imposing a 10% baseline tariff on imports from all non-exempt countries, with higher rates for selected partners. For Uzbekistan, which falls under the baseline rate, the average U.S. tariff rose sharply—from 3.8% in 2024 to 18.1% in 2025. This escalation, especially in fuels and mining (29.5%) and manufacturing (14.5%), tightens market access for Uzbek exporters and could reduce competitiveness of low-margin products. Nonetheless, the tariff pattern also presents selective opportunities: moderate duties on processed foods, textiles, and industrial intermediates provide niches that could be expanded through improved certification, logistics, and trade facilitation. Regionally, Uzbekistan now occupies a middle position, facing higher tariffs than Kazakhstan but much lower than large Asian exporters like China and India, offering potential to serve as a tariff-neutral hub for re-export and light manufacturing aimed at the U.S. market. These shifts have important implications for Uzbekistan’s market positioning and sectoral competitiveness.

Source: UNCTAD Tariff Dashboard.

Compared with many CIS and Central Asian peers, Uzbekistan’s tariff exposure is moderate and strategically manageable.

Sector	Pre-January 2025 tariffs	Current tariffs
Manufacturing	4.5%	14.5%
Agriculture	3.0%	13.0%
Fuels & mining	5.4%	29.5%

Table 3: Trade-weighted average U.S. tariffs applied to imports from Uzbekistan, before and after early

2025. Source: UNCTAD Tariff Dashboard.

Although Uzbekistan’s exposure remains moderate by regional standards, sustained export growth will depend on the capacity to offset tariff-related cost pressures through productivity and quality improvements.

The new tariff regime poses both challenges and opportunities: while it may constrain low-processed exports, it incentivizes a shift toward higher-value manufacturing and agriculture. To capitalize on this asymmetry, Uzbekistan should strengthen support for sectors with moderate U.S. tariffs. With proactive trade and investment policies, Uzbekistan can turn external tariff pressures into an opportunity to diversify exports and attract export-oriented production.

Strengthening trade ties with the United States remains an important strategic goal for Uzbekistan’s long-term diversification agenda. The country’s improving export capacity, combined with its moderate exposure under the new U.S. tariff regime, provides a unique opportunity to reposition itself as a competitive, tariff-neutral hub for manufacturing and re-export within the region. Achieving this will require sustained institutional coordination, improved logistics and certification frameworks, and proactive engagement in regional and global trade partnerships.

Babadjanov Muhammad

Head of Department at Institute for Macroeconomic and Regional Studies under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan