By Qamar Bashir
In a dramatic escalation of the ongoing conflict, Ukraine launched a highly sophisticted drone strike on Russian airbases, reportedly damaging and destroying a substantial portion of Moscow’s strategic bomber fleet. This operation, codenamed “Spiderweb,” involved the deployment of 117 AI-guided drones, which targeted five key Russian airbases across regions including Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan, and Amur. The attack resulted in the destruction and severe damage of over 40 aircraft, including Tu-95, Tu-22M3, Tu-160 bombers, and A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft. The damage to Russia has been estimated to be round $7 billion, marking a significant blow to Russia’s long-range aerial capabilities.
The timing of this strike coincided with peace talks in Istanbul, mediated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The peace talks highlighted the fundamentally opposing objectives of Russia and Ukraine. Russia demands recognition of its control over annexed territories, including Crimea and four other regions, the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces, and a commitment from Ukraine to remain neutral and non-aligned, effectively preventing NATO membership .
Conversely, Ukraine insists on the complete withdrawal of Russian troops, the restoration of its territorial integrity, and security guarantees from Western countries to prevent further aggression. Ukraine also seeks the prosecution of Russian leaders for war crimes and the return of abducted Ukrainian children.
The latest attack—an advanced, high-tech, and professionally maneuvered drone strike—has dealt a severe blow to Russia. If such attacks continue and Russia finds itself unable to respond with conventional forces in kind, there is a growing possibility that Moscow may seriously consider the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
Russia may seek not only to counterbalance the damage inflicted but also to punish those directly involved in planning, executing, and supporting the operation. This could mean that Russia may expand the scope of the war, targeting European capitals that have been providing aid and resources to Ukraine—actions which have now become a significant concern for the United States and its allies, as the war risks spiraling beyond its current boundaries.
By striking deep into the heart of Russia with such precision and devastation, Ukraine has gained a position of relative strength compared to Moscow, a factor that will provide Kyiv with greater bargaining leverage in any potential future negotiations—if such talks materialize at all. However, Russia is even more astute. It is unlikely to enter into any meaningful negotiation from a position of weakness.
Instead, Russia will likely seek to counterbalance the damage inflicted upon it, and may even surpass Ukraine’s gains with its own retaliatory strikes, in order to restore its strategic advantage before considering any talks. This tit-for-tat escalation is a profoundly dangerous dynamic, one that risks undermining any prospects for peace and threatens to prolong and intensify the conflict between the two nations
As the war drags into its fourth year, both Russia and Ukraine—along with their allies in Europe and the United States—are beginning to grasp the immense toll this war has taken. Russia has sustained military losses exceeding $94 billion as of May 2025, with inflation and a weakened ruble further straining its economy. Ukraine’s economy has been crippled, with a cumulative GDP loss of $120 billion, infrastructure damages topping $1 trillion, and reconstruction needs projected at a staggering $524 billion—nearly triple its pre-war GDP. Meanwhile, European allies have not been spared: German companies alone faced losses of at least €200 billion in 2022, particularly in the automotive, energy, and chemical sectors, as the sanctions and war-driven economic disruptions ripple across the continent. The war is bleeding resources, depleting tax bases, and pushing all involved nations toward economic strain.
The countries directly or indirectly involved in this conflict are draining their national wealth in a futile pursuit of land, power, and hegemony, while other nations, uninvolved in the war, are conserving their resources and channeling them into productive investments: building modern infrastructure, advancing research and development, exploring space, and fostering innovation. As a result, the economies of the United States, Russia, Europe, and their allies will bear the long-term costs of this war, while their adversaries—particularly China, which has been labeled a strategic competitor—will continue to grow stronger. China stands to benefit the most from this prolonged conflict, as the Western powers exhaust themselves financially, militarily, and diplomatically, effectively handing Beijing the advantage on the global stage.
Ukraine, heavily reliant on Western support, faces the risk of donor fatigue. Ukrainian officials have expressed concerns about growing donor fatigue, noting a $43 billion budget shortfall for 2024. Conversely, Russia, with its larger economy and resources, may continue to absorb the war’s costs, albeit at the expense of its own economic stability.
The recent talks in Istanbul, while limited in progress, have set the stage for potential future negotiations involving Presidents Putin, Zelenskyy, and Trump. For meaningful dialogue to occur, both sides must address the core issues: territorial integrity, security guarantees, and the future of Ukraine’s alignment with Western institutions.
This is perhaps a shorter and more intense replica of the First and Second World Wars, where alliances were drawn, and massive resources were expended. Now, allies are on one side, and Russia is on the other, both depleting their resources and indirectly enabling their adversaries to gain strength. The solution to this quagmire lies in recognizing the mutual losses and the unintended empowerment of non-involved nations.
It would be naive to think that European leaders and the USA have not calculated these aspects—their own losses and the strengthening of their adversaries—while they continue to fund and fuel the war. Sanity should prevail among all parties. The conflict results in losses for Russia, Ukraine, and their allies, while those outside the conflict stand to gain.
The entire geopolitical landscape is undergoing a profound shift due to this war, with a heightened possibility of shrinking the economic, trade, investment, business, and military influence of the warring nations—primarily European powers this time—while simultaneously creating space for their adversaries to expand. Let us hope that sanity will prevail sooner rather than later, bringing an end to the erosion of the geopolitical space of the warring parties and, conversely, halting the encroachment of their adversaries into their traditional spheres of influence.
By Qamar Bashir
Press Secretary to the President (Rtd)
Former Press Minister at the Embassy of Pakistan to France
Former MD, SRBC
Macomb, Michigan, USA
