The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project, once hailed as a game-changer for regional energy cooperation, remains stuck in limbo. Originally slated for completion by 2022, the project has faced repeated delays, primarily due to geopolitical tensions, security concerns in Afghanistan, and disagreements over India’s participation. While Turkmenistan insists on keeping India in the deal, Pakistan has grown increasingly reluctant to allow its regional rival to benefit from the pipeline. With the TAPI dream fading, another regional connectivity project—the Pakistan-Uzbekistan rail link via Afghanistan—appears to be making progress, raising questions about whether TAPI will ever materialize.
The TAPI pipeline, designed to transport 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually from Turkmenistan’s Galkynysh field to energy-starved South Asia, was envisioned as a win-win for all stakeholders. However, the project has been plagued by multiple roadblocks:
Pakistan has long been skeptical of allowing India to become a key beneficiary of the pipeline, given the tense bilateral relations. While Turkmenistan and Afghanistan see India’s participation as crucial for the project’s financial viability, Pakistan fears energy dependence on a hostile neighbor. Recent statements from Pakistani officials suggest a growing push to exclude India, which could derail the entire initiative.
Even if political differences were resolved, the Taliban-controlled Afghanistan remains a major security risk. The previous Afghan government had pledged to protect the pipeline, but the current regime’s ability to ensure safe transit is uncertain. Instability in the region makes financing and construction a risky proposition.
The estimated cost of TAPI exceeds $10 billion, and securing investment has been difficult due to the project’s geopolitical risks. International investors remain hesitant, and without strong commitments from all parties, the pipeline may never break ground.
While TAPI flounders, another regional connectivity project—the Trans-Afghan Railway connecting Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan—is gaining traction. This rail link, expected to be operational much sooner than TAPI, promises to enhance trade and transit between Central and South Asia. Unlike TAPI, this project does not involve India, making it more politically palatable for Pakistan. The railway could serve as a model for regional cooperation without the complications of Indo-Pak rivalry.
Turkmenistan, desperate to monetize its vast gas reserves, is unlikely to abandon India—a massive energy market—without a fight. However, if Pakistan remains adamant about excluding New Delhi, the project may need a drastic redesign. One possibility is scaling down TAPI to a Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TAP) pipeline, supplying gas only to Pakistan and Afghanistan. Yet, this would require alternative financing and buyers, as the original feasibility depended on India’s demand.
The TAPI pipeline, once a symbol of regional cooperation, now appears increasingly unviable due to geopolitical rifts and security challenges. While Turkmenistan clings to the hope of keeping India on board, Pakistan’s reluctance and Afghanistan’s instability cast a long shadow over the project’s future. Meanwhile, the progress on the Pakistan-Uzbekistan rail link demonstrates that regional connectivity is still possible—just not in the form originally envisioned.
Unless all stakeholders make urgent compromises, TAPI may join the long list of ambitious but failed energy projects in South Asia. The window for saving it is closing fast, and if no breakthrough occurs soon, the dream of a trans-regional gas pipeline may finally be laid to rest.
