CommentAnsar M BhattiPolitical parties are intensifying their election campaigns in anticipation of the forthcoming announcement of the election schedule by the Election Commission. Notably, the PML-N appears particularly optimistic about its prospects in the upcoming elections, in stark contrast to the PPP, which faces challenges in conducting its campaign. The PPP expresses reservations about its ability to secure favor from the Establishment, believing that it has not successfully garnered their support.Hence we often hear from them about the ‘foul play’ on the part of the powers-that-be, which, according to PPP, want to keep it out of the parliament. Even if it is so, the PPP should not worry about it at all as it claims to be a party of the underprivileged having deep roots among masses. It also claims to have done a lot for the have-nots, therefore in this case it should not be a matter of great concern for them even if the Establishment has chosen to be on the side of the PML-N!!The PML-N is poised to encounter significant hurdles in the days ahead within the complex landscape of Pakistani politics. Traditionally, political alliances among key political parties in Pakistan materialize post-elections, with the party securing a simple or absolute majority determining partnerships based on preferences. However, in a departure from this norm, the PML-N appears to have entered into a pre-election alliance with the MQM. Speculation abounds regarding whether this collaboration was a strategic decision or if external factors compelled the party into this alliance. Regardless of the impetus behind this unconventional move, it is evident that the alliance carries potential risks for the PML-N both leading up to and following the elections. Moreover, it appears to be a marriage of convenience rather than an alliance, underscoring its inherent fragility.There are strong indications that the PML-N is poised to lead the next government in collaboration with the MQM and a few other political parties. Efforts are underway to orchestrate a political alliance between the PML-N and the recently established IPP. However, if this alliance materializes, concerns arise that the PML-N might face challenges in completing its term.Recognizing the potential risks, sensible voices within the party are actively working to counter this move. Some leaders advocate for exploring a strategic seat adjustment with the IPP instead of forming a comprehensive alliance. Nevertheless, a significant majority within the party opposes even the seat adjustment option.The likelihood of Nawaz Sharif assuming the office of the prime minister for the fourth time remains a formidable challenge. The intricacies of this process become particularly apparent when considering the timeline associated with the election schedule. Upon the announcement of the election schedule, candidates are required to submit their nomination papers. This crucial step is anticipated to conclude in December or early January.However, Nawaz Sharif’s ability to file his nomination papers hinges on the timely resolution of his appeals seeking acquittal. If the decision on his appeals is delayed, it could potentially impede his ability to file nomination papers within the stipulated timeframe. In such a scenario, it becomes increasingly likely that Nawaz Sharif may opt to participate in by-elections. Nevertheless, this decision would be contingent on the court’s verdict.The timing of the court decision holds significant weight, as a delayed outcome could necessitate the appointment of an interim prime minister as a stopgap arrangement. As reports suggest, there is still a kind of disagreement between the PML N and the Establishment. PML N wants at least a simple majority in order to steer clear the country out of existing political and economic mess. It is however yet to get a positive nod in this regard.The PTI, contrastingly, remains entangled in the repercussions of strained relations with influential forces. During Imran Khan’s tenure in power, he seemingly overlooked the crucial role played by the Establishment in propelling him to office and sustaining his position. Over time, an illusionary sense of genuine popularity seemed to engulf him, leading him to believe that his three years in office had significantly improved the lives of the less privileged in the country. Unfortunately, this misconception exacted a substantial toll, as he found himself facing the consequences of a misjudged assumption.However, the undeniable truth persists that the abrupt removal of his government and the subsequent rise of PDM figures triggered a significant change in public sentiment, ultimately swaying support towards the PTI leader. The subsequent lackluster performance of the PDM not only reversed Imran Khan’s status from a political underdog to a hero but also cemented a narrative that the PDM leadership continues to grapple with, a mistake that will haunt them indefinitely.The pivotal question at hand revolves around the prospective trajectory of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and its charismatic leader, Imran Khan. Analyzing Imran Khan’s political future reveals a stark reality: his chances of clinching victory in upcoming elections seem remote, contingent upon a significant discord between the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Establishment. The PTI’s ascendancy to the forefront becomes plausible only when such differences reach a threshold, positioning the party as the sole viable alternative.Despite this, the PTI might secure participation in elections, albeit without prominent figures. Allowing the PTI to be part of the electoral landscape is pragmatic, as their absence could render the entire electoral process futile. Intriguingly, there are internal voices advocating for a PTI boycott of the elections. However, irrespective of internal debates, the PTI should not relinquish its position and must field candidates across all constituencies.Learning from past missteps, the PTI should refrain from repeating the error of resigning from assemblies, a move that inadvertently cedes ground to its adversaries. Instead, adopting a strategy of active participation ensures that the PTI remains a formidable force, resilient in the face of challenges. In essence, the party must navigate the complex political terrain with strategic nominations, avoiding self-imposed sidelines and contributing to shaping the political landscape, even in the absence of high-profile figures.
