WASHINGTON, JUN 12: Oil prices fell over 4 percent on Friday to their lowest in nearly two months after US President Donald Trump canceled new strikes on Iran, reducing fears of an escalation of hostilities following tit-for-tat attacks earlier in the week.
Brent futures LCOc1 were down $3.81, or 4.22 percent, at $86.57 a barrel by 0857 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLc1 crude dropped $3.80, or 4.33 percent, to $83.91. Both contracts were at their lowest since April 17.
Trump called off the threatened strikes on Thursday, saying discussions with Iran had progressed and a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping could be signed as soon as this weekend. Tehran said it had not made a final decision but large parts of the agreement had been finalized.
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Iran’s Mehr news agency reported that final negotiations on a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the US would focus on nuclear and economic issues but would exclude discussions about Iran’s missile program.
“Headlines are driving the market once again, as confidence grows that an eventual deal will be struck and the Strait reopens,” said PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga.
The caveat, however, was that global and regional oil stocks were still low and could drift further even with a deal, as it would take time to ensure uninterrupted oil flows, he added.
On Thursday, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which vessel traffic was already severely limited, saying it would fire on any ship trying to pass through the waterway. The strait normally carries a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.
The US military said on social media that commercial ships continued to transit the waterway.
“We believe the market reaches an inflection point in late July if we do not see oil flows resuming before then. This is when inventory levels and seasonally stronger demand push prices significantly higher towards $120-130 per barrel,” said ING analysts in a Friday note.
Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 average Brent forecast to $80 a barrel on higher supply and lower demand, but expects prices to exceed the 2025 average on stockpiling of OECD commercial oil stocks and a security premium for disruptions.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its forecast for 2026 world oil demand growth to 970,000 barrels per day on Thursday from a previous 1.17 million bpd, marking its second straight downward revision.
The producer group also said consumption would rebound later, raising its demand growth forecast for 2027. It expects 2027 oil demand to rise by 1.73 million bpd, up 190,000 bpd from its previous forecast.
