By He Yin, People’s Daily
As international organizations and investment institutions lifted their forecast on China’s economic growth this year, the international community has gained stronger confidence in the Chinese economy.
There is an increasingly prevalent view that China will be a major driver of global recovery. It is anticipated that the Chinese economy will embrace brighter prospects and once again become the largest contributor to global growth.
The lifted expectations on China’s growth mirror the country’s strong economic resilience.
According to the recent World Economic Outlook report issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), growth in China is projected to rise to 5.2 percent in 2023, 0.8 percentage points higher than its previous forecast, and China’s economic growth will contribute around a quarter of global growth.
The United Nations’ World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2023 report said China’s economy is expected to grow by 4.8 percent this year, leading the economic recovery in East Asia.
Besides, many international investment institutions including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, HSBC and JPMorgan have lifted their forecasts on China’s economic growth in 2023.
Bloomberg said on its website that China’s reopening is set to provide a welcome boost to global growth.
China’s optimized COVID-19 response is the most direct reason for the international community to raise the economic growth forecast of the country.
Consumer market figures grew sharply during the just-ended Chinese New Year holiday, sending a strong signal of recovery. According to the latest statistics, the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for China’s manufacturing sector regained expansion this January, which also indicated a stable economic rebound.
American weekly magazine Barron’s said that all the switches that can be switched on have been moved toward growth in China, and there’s a lot of momentum behind it.
China, maintaining its commodity price at a relatively low level, has convinced the international community of its ample room for keeping proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies.
Last year, some countries witnessed soaring energy and food prices. For instance, the consumer price index (CPI) in December 2022 grew 6.5 percent year on year in the United States, 9.2 percent in the eurozone and 10.5 percent in the United Kingdom.
Global economic activities will still bear the pressure from high inflation this year. To bring inflation down and prevent the global economy from falling into recession, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point, and the European Central Bank and the Bank of England followed this move to hike interest rates by 50 basis points.
In contrast, China’s commodity price is generally stable. The country’s CPI rose 2 percent from a year ago in 2022.
Vice President of the BRICS New Development Bank Leslie Maasdorp said China has ample fiscal space, which enables it to better adapt its economy following the recovery.
To predict economic trends calls for studies into both short-term dynamic and long-term growth momentums.
Boasting a population of more than 1.4 billion, per capita GDP of over $12,000 and 400 million middle-income earners, China is the world’s most promising super-large market. This makes China enjoy enormous advantages in its economic size, innovative development and impact-resistance capability.
China has the biggest and most complete manufacturing system in the world and is among the world’s largest producers of over 220 industrial products. It possesses a vital position in the global division of labor system and supply chain system, and has strong supply capability in building a new development paradigm.
The country is pursuing a more proactive strategy of opening up, working to build a globally-oriented network of high-standard free trade areas, and joining hands with all relevant parties to advance high-quality Belt and Road cooperation. It has advanced a broader agenda of opening up across more areas and in greater depth.
China has maintained the world’s largest trader in goods for six consecutive years and constantly set new records in foreign direct investment, which has laid a solid foundation for steady economic development.
Tamas Hajba, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) representative to China, said China has a super-large market and is constantly expanding openness and cooperation. The country’s economic growth will be a stabilizer for both global and regional growth, he added.
China is the world’s second-largest economy. Its economic recovery is crucially important for the world.
The country will strive to reach its major economic goals this year and make progress in high-quality development with new accomplishments. It will surely make important contributions to promoting global recovery.