WASHINGTON: The experts have cautioned that the early vote returns in battleground states may not provide a clear picture of who will win the presidency as Americans head to the polls for the 2024 presidential election.
According to details, this is due to state-specific vote counting rules and the quirks of mail-in ballots, which could lead to misleading early trends.
In the 2020 election, the “red mirage” and subsequent “blue shift” highlighted the challenge of interpreting early results. On election night, Donald Trump initially led in several key states, only for Joe Biden to overtake him once mail-in ballots—favored by Democratic voters—were counted.
While experts predicted this shift, Trump and his allies exploited the change to promote false claims of election fraud.
This pattern could repeat in 2024, particularly in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where early voting trends may show an initial lead for Trump that could later reverse.
Conversely, the opposite scenario, a “blue mirage,” may appear in states such as North Carolina and Georgia, where early counts could show Kamala Harris leading, only for a subsequent “red shift” to shift the result in Trump’s favor as remaining votes are tallied.
Trump’s campaign has already signaled plans to declare victory once he believes he has reached 270 Electoral College votes—regardless of whether all ballots have been counted. Experts warn that such a premature declaration could be misleading, especially if significant numbers of mail-in and early votes remain to be processed.
The uncertainty hinges largely on how and when states count early and absentee ballots. Democrats tend to live in more densely populated urban areas, where vote counting often takes longer, which could skew early returns in their favor.
As election night unfolds, voters and analysts alike will need to be cautious in interpreting early results, which may not accurately reflect the final outcome.
