Dr. Muhammad Akram Zaheer
A Challenge for Pakistan’s Transit Trade
A direct freight train carrying industrial goods from China has reached Afghanistan through Central Asia, highlighting the changing pattern of regional trade and raising questions about Pakistan’s role as a transit route for its landlocked neighbour. The train departed from China’s Shandong province, crossed the Khorgos border crossing into Kazakhstan, travelled through Uzbekistan and arrived at Afghanistan’s Hairatan dry port after a journey of around 20 days. The shipment, reportedly worth about $1.2 million, includes textiles, chemicals, tools and construction machinery.
The development offers Afghanistan another route for importing goods from China. It also presents a challenge for Pakistan, which has long benefited from handling Afghan-bound cargo through Karachi’s port and transporting it by road to Peshawar and onward across the Torkham border.
For years, this route formed an important part of Pakistan’s transit trade. Goods arriving at Karachi were moved through the country’s road network before entering Afghanistan. The process generated revenue from port operations, transport, warehousing, customs-related services and other commercial activities. It also gave Pakistan an opportunity to benefit from its geographical position between the Arabian Sea and Afghanistan. The emergence of a direct rail connection through Central Asia could gradually reduce Afghanistan’s dependence on this traditional route, particularly if rail transport proves competitive in terms of cost, reliability and delivery time.
For a landlocked country such as Afghanistan, access to efficient trade corridors is essential. Imports are needed not only to meet consumer demand but also to supply factories, construction projects and other economic activities. The availability of alternative routes can help traders reduce their dependence on a single transit corridor and negotiate more favourable transport arrangements. The new rail movement demonstrates the potential of existing railway links between China and Central Asia. Instead of sending goods by sea to Karachi and then moving them overland through Pakistan, traders can use a northern route through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to reach Afghanistan.
A journey of around 20 days may make this option attractive for certain categories of cargo, although the actual advantage will depend on freight charges, border procedures, handling costs and the reliability of future services. A single shipment is not enough to establish whether the route will become a regular alternative on a large scale. Its long-term significance will depend on whether similar trains operate consistently and whether the service can accommodate growing volumes of trade. Rail transport also has its limitations. Not every product is suited to the same route, and traders must consider the availability of railway facilities, the cost of transferring goods between transport systems and the time required for customs clearance. Sea transport through Karachi may remain competitive for many shipments, particularly where large volumes and established supply chains make it economical. Nevertheless, the new connection gives Afghan importers another option. In regional trade, the availability of alternatives can itself change bargaining power, even before a new route handles a substantial share of total cargo.
The route through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan reflects the growing importance of Central Asia in regional connectivity. Railway links can help these countries expand transit services, develop logistics facilities and earn revenue from the movement of goods across their territories.
For Afghanistan, stronger links with Central Asia could diversify its trade and reduce the risks associated with relying too heavily on one corridor. For China, overland connections provide another means of reaching regional markets and strengthening commercial ties with neighbouring countries. The benefits, however, are not automatic. Reliable infrastructure, predictable border procedures, coordination between customs authorities and stable commercial arrangements are necessary if such routes are to attract regular business. Delays at borders or high handling charges can undermine the advantages of rail transport. The economic value of the new corridor will therefore depend on more than the arrival of a single train. Regular services, transparent tariffs and efficient movement across national borders will determine whether it becomes a significant channel for trade.
For Pakistan, the development should be a reason to reassess its transit trade policy. The country’s geographical position has long offered an advantage, but location alone cannot guarantee continued business. Traders will choose routes according to cost, speed, reliability and ease of doing business. Pakistan has much to gain from retaining its position as a major trade gateway for Afghanistan and the wider region. Karachi remains an important port, while the country’s transport network provides access to Afghan markets. But these advantages need to be supported by efficient port operations, modern logistics, streamlined customs procedures and fewer delays at border crossings. If moving goods through Pakistan becomes expensive or unpredictable, importers will have stronger reasons to consider alternatives. The new rail route is a reminder that commercial decisions are shaped by practical considerations rather than geography alone. Pakistan can respond by reducing the time required to clear transit cargo, improving coordination between ports and transport operators, and making border procedures more transparent. Better roads, warehousing and freight services would also help keep the country’s transit corridor competitive. More consistent trade arrangements with Afghanistan could further strengthen confidence among businesses that depend on cross-border commerce.
The direct train from China should not be interpreted as proof that Pakistan is about to lose its position in Afghan trade. The scale of any shift will depend on future freight volumes, costs and the frequency of rail services. Yet it signals that regional trade routes are changing and that Pakistan cannot take its existing advantages for granted. The choice facing Pakistan is straightforward: improve the efficiency of its transit system or risk losing business to routes that offer traders better terms. As China and Central Asian countries strengthen their commercial links with Afghanistan, Pakistan will need to turn its geographical advantage into a practical economic benefit. In an increasingly connected region, transit trade is not secured by location alone. It must be earned through reliable services, competitive costs and policies that allow commerce to move with minimum delay.
Dr. Muhammad Akram Zaheer
Assistant Professor Pakistan Studies
Imperial College of Business Studies Lahore
