DNA
Islamabad:— The Institute of Regional Studies (IRS), Islamabad, hosted an insightful session under its Eminent Speaker Series titled “CVE in Central Asia in 2026: Trends, Prospects and Challenges”, organized by the Central Asia Program for Regional Cooperation and Connectivity. The session was moderated by Mr. Aarish U. Khan, Head of the Afghanistan Program and Editor of Publications at the IRS.
The event featured distinguished speakers- Dr. Eldaniz Gusseinov, Head of Research at Nightingale International, a political foresight institute based in Almaty, Kazakhstan, and Dr. Iftikhar Firdous, Founder and Executive Director of The Khorasan Diary in Islamabad who offered in-depth analyses of evolving security dynamics in Central and South Asia.
Dr. Gusseinov highlighted Central Asia’s precarious geopolitical positioning between conflicts in Southwest Asia and ongoing tensions involving Afghanistan and Pakistan. He underscored that contemporary threats are less about territorial spillovers and more about ideological diffusions, digital radicalization, and vulnerabilities within strained populations. He noted the increasing use of encrypted platforms for extremist recruitment and emphasized that Central Asian states are pursuing pragmatic engagement with the Taliban through economic cooperation—particularly led by Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Russia—while maintaining legal ambiguity on formal recognition.
Dr. Firdous presented a sobering assessment of Afghanistan’s post-2021 trajectory, noting that initial expectations of a reformed “Taliban 2.0” have not materialized. He pointed to a sharp rise in terrorism in Pakistan—reportedly increasing by 400%—and warned of intensifying cross-border insecurity, especially along key regions such as Kurram, Bajaur, and Waziristan. He further highlighted emerging trends such as “Gen Z jihadism” and the concept of the “salad bar ideology,” where individuals draw from diverse online extremist narratives rather than adhering to a single group for radicalization.
Dr. Firdous further emphasized governance challenges within Afghanistan, including institutional weaknesses, international pressure over human rights, and unmet expectations from neighboring states regarding counterterrorism. He also discussed the growing complexity of regional rivalries, including evolving Taliban-India engagement, and the role of non-state actors and digital platforms in shaping modern militancy. The session underscored that countering violent extremism in Central Asia requires moving beyond traditional security paradigms. As ideological influence, digital ecosystems, and geopolitical competition redefine conflict, sustainable stability will depend on adaptive policies, regional cooperation, and credible governance mechanisms across Afghanistan and its neighborhood.
